Strait of Hormuz May Not Fully Reopen for Months, Baker Hughes Says
Oilfield services firm expects U.S.-Iran conflict to continue through end of June; 80% of executives see disruptions until August or later
L'essentiel
- Baker Hughes CFO says the Strait of Hormuz will likely not fully reopen for months, with operations not expected until the second half of 2026.
- A Dallas Fed survey shows nearly 80% of oil and gas executives believe the strait won't reopen until August or later.
- The closure has impacted 10% of global oil volumes and 20% of global LNG supplies.
Résumé généré par IA
Pourquoi c'est important
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important trade routes, with about 20% of global oil supplies passing through before the war. Iran has managed to choke off exports by attacking tankers, triggering the biggest oil supply disruption in history. Tanker traffic remains very low as the conflict enters its eighth week.
The Strait of Hormuz probably will not fully reopen for months, a senior executive at the oilfield services firm Baker Hughes said Friday.
Baker expects the U.S.-Iran conflict to continue through the end of June, said Chief Financial Officer Ahmed Mogal. The strait probably will not be fully operational until the second half of the year, Mogal told investors on the company's first-quarter earnings call.
Baker is one of the most influential oilfield drillers in the world with extensive business in the Middle East. Its view that the strait will not reopen for months is widely shared in the energy industry.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found in a survey of nearly 100 oil and gas executives that nearly 80% believe the strait will not reopen until August or later. More than 80% of executives who responded see future disruptions in the strait as somewhat or very likely, the Dallas Fed Energy survey found.
Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said "geopolitical risk has become a structural reality for oil and gas markets" after the Iran war. The closure of the strait has impacted 10% of global oil volumes and knocked offline 20% of global liquified natural gas (LNG) supplies, Simonelli said. This will likely to result in "persistent risk premiums for oil and LNG prices," the CEO said.
The strait is one of the most important trade routes in the world, particularly for energy markets with about 20% of global oil supplies passing through the sea lane before the war. Iran has managed to choke off exports through the strait by attacking tankers, triggering the biggest oil supply disruption in history. Tanker traffic through the strait remains very low as the conflict enters its eighth week.
The U.S. and Iran have both seized commercial ships as they try to enforce competing blockades in and around the strait during a fragile ceasefire agreement.
À surveiller
Perspective IA — des possibilités, pas des certitudes
Strait of Hormuz will not fully reopen until at least August 2026
Très probable · En quelques mois
Oil and LNG prices will maintain risk premiums through second half of 2026
Probable · En quelques mois
Future disruptions in the strait remain likely
Très probable · En quelques mois
Questions ouvertes
- Will the fragile ceasefire hold?
- What specific actions will the U.S. take to reopen the strait?
- How long will Iran maintain its blockade?
- What will be the long-term impact on global energy markets?
