Trump Pauses Iran Attack Plan; Oil Prices Dip, Energy Crunch Fears Remain

Hello, this is Dylan Butts writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of the CNBC Daily Open.

As major U.S. stock benchmarks fell, and bonds saw a sell-off, President Donald Trump said he had paused his plan to attack Iran.

Following the decision to halt military action, oil was lower, but the broader energy shock continues to ripple globally, amid continued warnings of an extended energy crunch.

Enjoy!

Iran was back in the headlines Monday, with Trump saying he would postpone a "scheduled attack of Iran," following requests from leaders in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, while threatening a "large scale assault of Iran, on a moment's notice."

International benchmark Brent crude futures for July delivery fell more than 2% to trade at $109.15 per barrel on Tuesday. The West Texas Intermediate futures declined 1.27% to $107.28 per barrel.

But the broader energy supply worries remain intact as the critical energy waterway, the Strait of Hormuz, continues to be blockaded by Iran.

Commodity analysts and strategists have sounded alarms that European oil shortages could emerge within weeks as inventories deplete as a result of disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. Global stockpiles may not recover until 2027, with major implications for prices and supply chains, they warned.

That has also resulted in pressure on airlines, with Ryanair's CFO warning of a potential "armageddon" jet fuel crunch, saying weaker European carriers may not survive.

Heightening global inflation fears have also led to a rout in global bond markets, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields reaching their highest level in a year on Monday and Japan's 30-year government bond yield rising to a record high.

Easing those inflation fears will be on the agenda for the Trump-nominated Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who, a White House official told CNBC, will be sworn in on Friday.

Meanwhile, U.S. markets started the trading week down, with the S&P 500 posting back-to-back losses amid a tech sector sell-off. However, Asia-Pacific markets opened broadly higher Tuesday as oil prices, while elevated, eased.

Amid the tech sell-off in the U.S., Meta is expected to begin a round of layoffs this week, reflecting the impacts of AI investment and efficiency drives inside the American tech giant.

Also in tech news, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk lost his court battle against OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman over claims they allegedly violated an agreement to run their artificial intelligence venture strictly as a charitable nonprofit.

A federal jury in Oakland, California, determined that Musk waited too long to launch the suit, with Musk and his attorneys saying they would appeal the verdict.

Investors will continue to monitor geopolitical developments, with Russian leader Vladimir Putin scheduled to begin an official state visit to Beijing, just days after President Trump concluded his trip to China.

— Dylan Butts

Trump pivots to midterms, affordability after China summit as Iran war persists

President Donald Trump has returned stateside and so has his administration's focus, even as the Iran war and the aftermath of his China trip remain front-burner issues.

Trump and his top officials are fanning out across the U.S. this week for events aimed at touting his domestic achievements — a notable pivot after major foreign policy matters in Iran, China, Cuba, Venezuela and elsewhere have dominated headlines for months.

Trump on Monday afternoon is set to unveil his latest effort to bring down healthcare costs, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth travels to a campaign event in Kentucky and Vice President JD Vance attends a manufacturing-focused event in Missouri.

The apparent shift, days after Trump's return from Beijing, comes ahead of the fast-approaching 2026 midterm elections, where Democrats hope to regain at least one chamber of Congress and fiercely push back against the president's policy agenda.

— Kevin Breuninger