Trump Reportedly Intervenes in Balogun Suspension, Prediction Markets Surge

Hello, this is Hui Jie writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC's Daily Open.

The U.S. celebrated its 250th anniversary on Saturday with fireworks, a massive event on the National Mall, and a campaign-style speech by President Donald Trump.

For investors coming back from the weekend, drama is not only on the pitch — it is showing up across prediction markets, oil and Wall Street's heightened risk appetite.

The 2026 World Cup continues to deliver one surprise after another.

The beautiful game has seen its share of upsets on the field, but there is no lack of drama off the field, with U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly intervening to overturn a national player's suspension for a red card.

The red card to U.S. striker Folarin Balogun resulted in an immediate one-game suspension without appeal, but FIFA said on Sunday it would allow him to play in the next game, a move not seen in over 60 years.

Multiple media outlets reported that Trump called FIFA President Gianni Infantino and asked him to review Balogun's suspension.

In fans minds, that might be a red card in its own right.

Prediction markets, meanwhile, are riding the football frenzy with massive trading volumes in June. Kalshi saw more than $31 billion in notional volume during the month, an over 70% increase from May's total of $17.9 billion.

The platform has consistently managed volumes of over $1 billion daily since the soccer tournament began on June 11.

Polymarket's international event contract exchange set a new high in monthly volume, with notional trading surpassing $10.8 billion in June. That reverses a slide in April and May.

While prediction markets are having a field day, U.S. equity markets are not far behind even as there's a rotation out of high-flying AI names. Stock futures were all in positive territory, extending weekly gains last week before the Independence Day holiday. Asia-Pacific markets, however, were trading mixed Monday.

Outside of the U.S., the Iran conflict seems to be notably deescalating, with the U.K. and France agreeing to work with Oman to ensure the Gulf country's territorial waters are safe for navigation. Oman also borders the Strait of Hormuz.

The move, alongside OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day, sent oil prices down on Monday, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures lower by 0.26% to $68.49 and international benchmark Brent down 0.36% at $71.86.

— Lim Hui Jie