UK Summer Sees Prolonged Dry Spell, Raising Drought Concerns
L'essentiel
- The UK is experiencing an exceptionally hot and dry summer, with central England seeing its longest dry spell since 1995, raising concerns about a potential drought.
- While heavy rainfall last autumn and winter recharged water sources, flash droughts are becoming more likely, with little significant rain forecast for the coming week.
Résumé généré par IA
Pourquoi c'est important
The current dry spell follows a very wet autumn and winter which recharged aquifers, rivers, and reservoirs, preventing a quicker onset of drought compared to last summer when drought was declared across much of England, Wales, and eastern Scotland.
Summer so far has been exceptionally hot and dry across much of the UK, with three widespread heatwaves and the longest run of dry days in central England since 1995.
England, Wales and eastern Scotland have been the driest areas over recent weeks, and this follows a very dry spring in similar regions.
Very little rainfall is forecast through this week for most places, with only a few light showers possible, mainly close to coasts.
As we head through the second half of summer, what are the longer range predictions, and are we heading into drought for the second summer in a row?
Rainfall so far this summer has been below average across the UK as a whole, but there has been large regional contrast.
Up to the middle of summer - 15 July - parts of eastern and north-eastern England had received just 26% of their total expected summer rainfall. Areas of northern and western Scotland had more than average for the first half of the summer, though.
For central England it has been the longest dry spell since 1995. Wisley in Surrey has seen 33 consecutive dry days.
Comparisons are being made with last summer, when drought was declared across much of England, Wales and eastern Scotland. It officially ended just four months ago.
This year, drought has not developed as quickly because heavy rainfall recharged our aquifers, rivers and reservoirs during a very wet autumn and winter.
However, the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology says flash droughts, external with a sudden transition between wet and dry conditions are "likely to happen more often, and be more intense".
High pressure stays in charge for the rest of this week, meaning no significant rainfall for at least the next five days. We could see a few midweek showers especially near coasts in south-east England and East Anglia, as well as northern Scotland.
Through the weekend, rain-bearing weather fronts will try to move in from the north-west, but most of this rain is likely to fall across parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland. As the fronts push south, they may fizzle out, meaning little or no rainfall for the places that need it most, in the south and east.
As for the rest of summer, it is too far off to know for sure, but there are hints that things could stay mainly dry and warm, especially in the south, although summer thunderstorms are possible.
Questions ouvertes
- Will a drought be officially declared this summer?
- How will regional rainfall disparities impact water resources?
- What are the specific longer-range predictions for the rest of summer?
