US Primary Elections Shape Midterm Landscape

Voters in six US states headed to the polls on Tuesday for a series of primary elections, which will help shape the political landscape before November’s midterms.

The contests included California’s race to replace term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom, Iowa’s open Senate and governor races, New Jersey’s closely watched House battleground, and key statewide contests in New Mexico, Montana and South Dakota.

The US midterms traditionally serve as a key litmus test of public support for the president. This year, as President Donald Trump sees his approval ratings plummet over the war on Iran, observers are watching more closely than ever.

Here are some key takeaways from the primaries:

California looks set for Becerra-Hilton showdown

Although millions of ballots for the governor candidates have yet to be counted, California voters appear to be setting up a November showdown between Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton.

The winner of the mid-term election in November will replace Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom, who is barred from seeking a third term.

Becerra, a former health secretary and California attorney general, has emerged as one of the leading candidates in a crowded field of Democrats, while Hilton, a former Fox News host endorsed by Trump, has built his campaign around popular concerns over housing costs, homelessness and affordability.

Kimberly L Nalder, director of the Project for an Informed Electorate at Sacramento State University, said Becerra’s strong performance suggested many voters may be looking for continuity rather than a sharp change in direction after the Newsom years.

She pointed to voters’ decision to reject an effort to recall Newsom in 2021 as evidence that many Californians remain comfortable with the state’s Democratic leadership.

“If they choose a traditionally qualified candidate like Becerra, it indicates that Californians are content to keep governing in a similar way,” she told Al Jazeera. “We certainly saw that with the Newsom recall attempt. People’s minds hadn’t changed since Newsom was first elected.”

Nalder added that strategic voting may have played a chief role in the primary.

Under California’s top-two system, under which the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election regardless of party, some Democrats appeared to back candidates they believed had the best chance of advancing to November rather than those closest to them politically.

“Democrats have been fearful of a double Republican result,” she said. “Many waited until the last moment to gauge who the frontrunners were so they could be most strategic.”

In San Francisco, state Senator Scott Wiener advanced in the race to replace former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, while other closely watched House contests could help determine whether Democrats maintain their dominance in California’s congressional delegation, experts say.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass also appeared on track to advance to a November run-off as she seeks a second term after a turbulent first four years in office.

Trump suffered a rare setback in Iowa

One of the night’s biggest surprises came in Iowa’s Republican gubernatorial primary, when businessman Zach Lahn defeated Representative Randy Feenstra despite Feenstra’s endorsement from Trump.

Lahn campaigned as a conservative outsider, backing a total abortion ban, opposing what he called liberal ideology in public schools and embracing the “Make America Healthy Again” movement.

“Tonight is just the beginning,” Lahn told supporters after declaring victory.

The result was notable because it showed that Trump’s endorsement, while powerful, is not always decisive. Lahn will now face Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand, whom Democrats view as one of their strongest statewide candidates in years.

Democrats see an opening in Iowa’s Senate race

Iowa voters also set up a closely watched Senate race after state Representative Josh Turek defeated state Senator Zach Wahls in the Democratic primary, while Representative Ashley Hinson comfortably secured the Republican nomination.

Turek, a former Paralympian, cast himself as an outsider fighting for working-class voters.

“The status quo is not working. We need a fighter for the people, not for billionaires, large corporations and political donors,” he told supporters.

Hinson, who earned endorsements from Trump and retiring Senator Joni Ernst, thanked the president in her victory speech and enters the race as the Republican favourite.

Even so, Democrats believe the open seat gives them one of their best pick-up opportunities of the cycle.

New Jersey’s most competitive House race is set

Democrats chose former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett to challenge Republican Representative Tom Kean Jr in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, one of the most competitive House races in the country.

The district is a top Democratic target as the party seeks to retake the House.

Bennett has already focused much of her campaign on Kean’s prolonged absence from Congress, after the Republican incumbent missed more than 100 House votes because of an undisclosed illness.

“You are failing us, and you do not deserve to represent us in Washington,” Bennett told supporters after her victory.

The race is expected to be a toss-up in November.

New Mexico could make history in governor’s race

Former US Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, 65, won the Democratic nomination for governor of New Mexico, keeping alive a historic bid that could make her the first Native American woman elected governor in the US.

Haaland, a member of the Laguna Pueblo tribe and the first Native American to serve in a presidential cabinet, defeated Albuquerque District Attorney Sam Bregman in Tuesday’s primary.

Her campaign focuses on affordability, experience in government and her ties to Indigenous communities.

She will now face Republican Greggory Hull in November’s general election.

The election takes place as New Mexico benefits from a surge in oil revenues. Rising oil prices linked to the war with Iran have boosted income for the state, which is the second-largest oil producer in the US after Texas. The increase is expected to generate hundreds of millions of dollars in additional revenue through taxes, royalties and other payments tied to energy production.

Montana and South Dakota

Voters in Montana and South Dakota also settled key nominations before November’s elections.

In Montana, Democrat Alani Bankhead and Republican Kurt Alme won their parties’ nominations for an open US Senate seat, setting up a general election contest later this year.

In South Dakota, Attorney General Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination for the state’s lone US House seat and will advance to the general election.