VanEck Analysts Maintain Bullish Bitcoin Outlook as On-Chain Signals Turn Positive
Hash rate drawdowns and negative funding rates historically precede significant price appreciation, firm notes
L'essentiel
- VanEck analysts report bullish on-chain signals for Bitcoin, noting hash rate drawdowns historically resulted in 37.7% median gains 90 days later.
- Negative funding periods showed 11.5% average 30-day returns versus 4.5% overall, with returns jumping to 19.4% when funding dropped below -5%.
- Spot Bitcoin ETPs reversed five weeks of $4 billion outflows to net positive flows in six of seven weeks through April 11.
Résumé généré par IA
Pourquoi c'est important
Bitcoin hash rate serves as network security indicator; drawdowns typically occur during miner capitulation or technical disruptions. Negative funding rates indicate bearish futures positioning, historically preceding price reversals. ETP flows track institutional sentiment toward Bitcoin.
After Bitcoin popped to its highest price since January earlier this week, VanEck analysts said Friday that they continue to see bullish on-chain signals around the leading cryptocurrency, with historically profitable conditions emerging across key metrics.
Bitcoin's hash rate currently sits at a 30-day moving average of 985.5 EH/s, down 7.5% from its all-time high of 1,065.7 EH/s set in late November, according to the report from VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush. The network weathered three sustained decline episodes in just the past five months. The most recent episode ended April 15 after 16 days with a peak decline of 6.7%.
Such drawdowns have proven bullish historically, with six of seven hash rate decline episodes resulting in Bitcoin trading higher 90 days later, posting a median gain of 37.7%.
The analysis also highlights negative funding rates as a powerful indicator. Bitcoin averaged 11.5% returns during 30-day periods with negative funding since 2020, compared to 4.5% overall returns. When funding dropped below -5%, returns jumped to 19.4% on 30-day periods and 70% on 180-day horizons.
Current transfer volume sits at $48.5 billion daily, representing the 81st percentile but down 5% month-over-month as positioning flux declined alongside reduced volatility.
Beyond on-chain metrics, Bitcoin exchange-traded products experienced a dramatic sentiment reversal. After five consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $4 billion from January 24 through February 21, spot Bitcoin ETPs shifted to net positive flows in six of the last seven weeks through April 11. The turnaround suggests institutional appetite for Bitcoin exposure rebounded following the initial post-launch volatility period.
The firm has tracked similar patterns in previous market cycles, with the combination of hash rate drawdowns and negative funding rates preceding significant price appreciation.
Questions ouvertes
- What specific catalyst triggered the recent price increase to January highs?
- Will the positive ETP flow trend continue beyond the seven-week period?
- How long typically separates hash rate recovery from price appreciation?
