Why BJP and JD(S) will keep close watch on DK Shivakumar government

The DK Shivakumar era has started in Karnataka. The Congress’s biggest troubleshooter is finally in the saddle as the chief minister of his state - a dream he nurtured and worked for over the years. Shivakumar took oath of office in the name of revered seer "Gangadhar Ajja", while holding a copy of the Constitution in his hands. His elevation comes after a long wait, but has the potential to change the political dynamics in the state. The Karnataka Congress chief had first staked claim to the top post in 2023 after leading the party to a record victory over the BJP in the assembly elections. However, the Congress high command then sided with Siddaramaiah’s experience and asked Shivakumar to wait for his turn under a rotational power-sharing agreement.

Karnataka assembly 2023 results

The fact that the Congress high command managed to ensure a smooth transition of power despite the hiccups, has put the grand-old-party in a pole position ahead of the 2028 assembly elections in the state. The Congress would hope that this leadership change will help the party counter anti-incumbency, if any, against the Siddaramaiah government. But this leadership change is not just about countering anti-incumbency. It is also about how the change in caste equations with this leadership swap may impact the success of political parties in the state. Little wonder, the BJP and the JD(S), will be closely watching the 64-year-old Vokkaliga Congress strongman in action as the chief minister. The Congress move forces both the parties, who occupy the opposition space in the state, to go back to their drawing boards and rework their strategies and balance the caste factor ahead of the 2028 assembly elections.

Why Shivakumar's rise could give BJP a headache

For the BJP, Shivakumar's elevation potentially disrupts a strategy the party has spent years building in Karnataka. The state's politics has long revolved around two influential communities - the Lingayats and the Vokkaligas. Put simply, they hold the keys to power. Members of these two groups have occupied the chief minister's office far more often than any other community in Karnataka's history, making them central to every party's electoral calculations. While the BJP's strength has traditionally come from the Lingayat belt, particularly under BS Yediyurappa, its expansion plans depended on making deeper inroads into the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysuru region. That was essentially one of the reasons behind the BJP's alliance with the JD(S). The BJP strategy was clear: It would bring its Lingayat support base, while the JD(S), led by HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy, would help deliver Vokkaliga votes. Together, the alliance hoped to create a coalition capable of challenging the Congress across southern Karnataka. But the elevation of Shivakumar, who is among the most influential Vokkaliga leaders in the state, as the chief minister complicates that calculation. Shivakumar gives the Congress something its rivals would have preferred it did not have, a powerful Vokkaliga face not just a part of the party but actually occupying the state's top job. His elevation comes at a time when the BJP has been carefully balancing its own caste equations. The party appointed R Ashoka, a Vokkaliga leader, as leader of the opposition while handing the state unit presidency to BY Vijayendra, son of Lingayat strongman BS Yediyurappa. The message was clear: a Lingayat would lead the organisation and a Vokkaliga would lead the fight against the government. With Shivakumar now in the chief minister's chair, that balancing act may have to change. The concern within sections of the BJP is that a Vokkaliga chief minister could make it harder for the NDA to consolidate support in southern Karnataka. There is also the possibility that the Congress may seek to expand its social coalition further by reaching out to sections of backward classes and dalits who may have been disappointed by Siddaramaiah's exit. For a BJP that was hoping to broaden its footprint beyond its traditional strongholds, Shivakumar's rise presents a fresh challenge.

How JD(S) will now be forced to defend its core support base

And while the BJP has a caste balance in place, its ally the Janata Dal (Secular), led by former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda and his son HD Kumaraswamy, faces a real challenge. The party has treated the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysuru region as its impregnable fortress. The community, which forms one of the most powerful agrarian and socio-political blocs in Karnataka, has traditionally rallied behind the Deve Gowda clan, viewing them as the ultimate guardians of Vokkaliga pride. However, Shivakumar being the chief minister directly threatens this monopoly because he is no longer just a political challenger, but now wields authority as chief minister to woo the community with his administrative decisions. The JD(S) now needs to rework strategy to defend its core voter base from a formidable, sitting Vokkaliga CM who has the state machinery, the necessary resources, and a point to prove. This becomes all the more challenging given the fact that the JD(S) has been on a downward trajectory for some time. In the 2023 assembly elections, the party won just 19 seats and secured around 13% of the vote share, a sharp contrast to the Congress, which swept to power with 135 seats. Significantly, Congress made major gains in several parts of the Old Mysuru region, which has been a JD(S) stronghold for years. The rivalry between Shivakumar and Kumaraswamy has also intensified over the years. The two leaders have repeatedly traded barbs, with Kumaraswamy accusing the Congress of attempting to politically weaken the JD(S), while Shivakumar dismissing claims that the regional party remains indispensable in Karnataka politics. The JD(S), which has in the past shared power with the Congress, now has a task at hand. It needs to strategise to ensure that chief minister DK Shivakumar does not push the party into the fringes of state politics. DK Shivakumar, on the other hand, has to prove that his governance skills are as good as his crisis management skills. The diehard Congressman, who has spent years building his image as an efficient organiser capable of delivering victories and protecting the party during its most difficult moments, now has to show that he can also lead the party with success.