Bitcoin recorded its best monthly performance in a year with an 11.87% gain in April, though it still fell slightly below the historical average of 12.98%. Analysts are divided on the outlook for May, which historically delivers average returns of about 8%, with some warning of a potential multi-month decline while others remain bullish on reaching $100,000.
Bitcoin fell below $78,000 on Monday, hitting $77,819 as the crypto market experienced approximately $295 million in liquidations over 24 hours. The decline tested the $77,000-$77,500 support zone while traders await the upcoming FOMC meeting on April 28-29. Analysts suggest the move appears to be a leverage flush rather than a broader risk-off event, though the trigger remains unresolved.
Bitcoin faces $8.07 billion options expiry on Deribit April 24 with bullish call skew but max pain near $71,500-$72,000, creating structural tension. The expiry occurs three days before the Fed's April 28-29 meeting and four days before Q1 GDP and PCE inflation data, amid oil-driven inflation concerns from the Strait of Hormuz closure. Fed officials have warned elevated rates may persist longer than markets expected.
