
集邦:AI基礎建設需求升溫 九大CSP今年資本支出估年增90%
研調機構集邦預估,受AI基礎建設需求持續升溫影響,全球九大雲端服務供應商(CSP)今年資本支出將突破8867億美元,年增約90%,並帶動全球AI伺服器出貨年增率上修至近31%。

研調機構集邦預估,受AI基礎建設需求持續升溫影響,全球九大雲端服務供應商(CSP)今年資本支出將突破8867億美元,年增約90%,並帶動全球AI伺服器出貨年增率上修至近31%。

研調機構TrendForce指出,由於高層數3D NAND排擠成熟製程產能,MLC NAND供給短缺,加上部分工控、車用客戶轉向SLC NAND,預期下半年SLC合約價格將較上半年調漲120%至170%。

研調機構TrendForce預估,今年第3季伺服器DRAM合約價將季增13%至18%,且預計至2027年下半年,整體伺服器DRAM合約價將維持逐季上漲,但漲幅將收斂。

市調機構TrendForce預測,由於7月進入電視面板市場的空窗期,品牌客戶要求降價,預估7月電視面板報價將全面下滑。顯示器與筆電面板雖需求降溫,但因成本壓力,價格預計持平。

TrendForce報告指出,AI伺服器及雲端服務商自研晶片放量帶動MLCC需求,日韓龍頭廠訂單出貨比創新高。預估下半年AI高階MLCC缺貨風險升高,台廠如國巨、華新科有機會取得消費規中高容X5R訂單。

AI需求升溫,加上產能排擠、原物料通膨及大廠減產,加速改變成熟製程供需結構。TrendForce預估,成熟製程價格自2026年起全面喊漲,漲勢可能延續至2027年。

Chinese chip suppliers, including Huawei and Cambricon, along with domestic tech giants, are projected to capture nearly 80% of China's AI server market this year, further eroding the position of global rivals like Nvidia due to geopolitical tensions and Beijing's push for self-reliance.

市調機構TrendForce預估,進入6月後,由於618與世足賽備貨暫告一段落,買賣雙方拉鋸下,電視面板報價將全面持平,僅顯示器面板部分尺寸續漲價。

受惠於成熟製程DRAM供給緊縮,消費性DRAM需求增加,DDR2合約價預計第二季漲幅達55-60%,第三季續漲35-40%。華邦電逐步退出DDR2生產,晶豪科則擴大DDR2投片。

AI需求爆發帶動先進封裝技術演進,面板級封裝(FOPLP)成為新戰場。台積電短期聚焦CoPoS,規劃2028下半年量產;長期則布局玻璃基板,預計2030年後量產。台灣面板廠具備大尺寸面板生產經驗,在FOPLP領域具備先發優勢,並與半導體廠形成互補。

2026年第一季,全球晶圓代工產業營收達479.5億美元,創歷史新高。台積電營收增長逾四成,市占率首度突破72%,幾乎獨占產業成長成果。三星、中芯國際等競爭對手成長有限,市場集中度進一步提高。

2026年第一季全球前五大企業級SSD品牌營收創下新高,達184.6億美元,較前一季成長86.1%。受AI Agent普及與雲端服務供應商強勁訂單帶動,市場供需失衡,合約價狂飆80%。三星營收居冠,SK海力士、美光、鎧俠、SanDisk緊隨其後。

SpaceX's planned IPO, seeking $75B at a $1.75T valuation, is expected to boost the satellite industry's growth, driven by expansions into direct-to-cell services, space-based solar power, AI computing, and vertical integration with its Terafab AI space computing chip facility.

Nvidia and MediaTek are launching the RTX Spark platform with N1/N1X processors, aiming to boost AI PC adoption. This move is expected to shift the market from basic NPU functions to advanced agent and local model computing, significantly increasing AI PC penetration by 2029.

HBM suppliers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are expected to gain pricing power due to surging AI demand and HBM's lower profitability compared to standard DRAM. TrendForce predicts contract prices could rise significantly next year as demand outstrips supply.