The CFTC is suing New Mexico officials to block state efforts to regulate prediction markets, arguing federal law grants it exclusive jurisdiction. New Mexico had sued Kalshi for allegedly offering unlicensed sports betting.
Prediction market platform Kalshi processed a record $17B in contracts in May, driven by institutional adoption. The company is focusing on Wall Street with new partnerships and infrastructure, aiming to offer hedging tools beyond traditional financial markets.
Crypto liquidity provider Wintermute is expanding its institutional trading services to prediction markets, aiming to boost liquidity and improve the reliability of market-implied probabilities. The firm handles $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume.
French investigators searched the Élysée Palace as part of a probe into alleged corruption and favoritism in public contracts, specifically focusing on the Pantheon interment ceremonies awarded to a single company for over two decades.
Gemini receives CFTC approval to operate its own derivatives clearinghouse, enabling in-house trade clearing and settlement while positioning for expansion into perpetual futures and prediction markets. The approval comes amid a lawsuit from NY Attorney General Letitia James arguing prediction markets violate state gambling rules.
Democratic lawmakers including Jeff Merkley are urging the CFTC to issue rules curbing prediction markets, prohibiting event contracts on elections, war, sports and government actions. The letter cites concerns over insider trading following a U.S. soldier's arrest for allegedly placing $400,000 in bets on Polymarket ahead of military action in Venezuela, and Kalshi's suspension of three political candidates for trading on their own campaigns.
Three ETF issuers have filed SEC applications to offer event contract ETFs allowing investors to wager on election outcomes through brokerage accounts. The proposed products would track prediction market probabilities for Senate and House control in 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election, following a similar model to bitcoin ETFs.
Wisconsin’s lawsuit against Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Polymarket and Crypto.com deepens the battle between state gambling enforcers and federal regulators over sports prediction markets.
Four major crypto platforms—Hyperliquid, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Pump.fun—are rapidly converging by adding perpetual futures, prediction markets, and memecoin trading into unified super apps designed to keep users in continuous speculative loops. Hyperliquid handles $191 billion in 30-day perp volume while Kalshi and Polymarket target $96B and $84B respectively in 2026 event market volumes. The convergence is drawing fierce regulatory scrutiny as the CFTC asserts federal jurisdiction while state attorneys general in New York and New Jersey argue these products constitute illegal gambling.
