Fifteen of 20 India-bound fertiliser ships have safely passed the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic urea production also exceeded targets from April to June, ensuring adequate fertiliser availability for farmers during the kharif season.
Fertiliser availability and prices may take 3-4 months to normalise due to disruptions in natural gas, petroleum derivatives, and shipping lanes. Ammonia prices might stabilize soon, but sulphur prices could remain high longer. India has enough urea but faces pressure on DAP supplies.
India's fertiliser supply chain is strained by the West Asia conflict disrupting shipping via the Strait of Hormuz. Combined with a below-normal monsoon forecast and El Niño conditions, this threatens crop output, food inflation, and India's economy, potentially widening the trade deficit and weakening the rupee.
Rice farmers across Asia face a critical fertiliser shortage as prices surge past 1,100 baht per sack, up from 800-900 baht just a month ago. The crisis stems from China's ban on fertiliser exports in March and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following US and Israel strikes on Iran in February. Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines - which depend heavily on Chinese fertiliser - face severe planting decisions that could reduce yields significantly. Food insecurity in Asia-Pacific is expected to rise by 24%.
The CEO of fertiliser giant Yara warns that disruptions to supplies caused by conflict in the Gulf could cost up to 10 billion meals per week globally. Svein Tore Holsether said 500,000 tons of nitrogen fertiliser is not being produced due to the situation blocking the Strait of Hormuz, with fertiliser prices up 80%. Without nitrogen fertiliser, crop yields could drop by up to 50%, potentially triggering a bidding war for food between richer and poorer nations.
The CEO of world fertiliser producer Yara has warned that supply disruptions due to the Gulf conflict could cost up to 10 billion meals per week. Svein Tore Holsether said half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser are not being produced due to the situation blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Fertiliser prices have soared by 80% since the US and Israel's war on Iran began, and reduced fertiliser use could cut crop yields by up to 50% in the first season, potentially triggering a bidding war for food between richer and poorer nations.
Despite global energy supply strains due to Middle East conflict, India's government assures robust domestic fertilizer availability, exceeding current requirements. Commercial LPG allocations have also increased, with officials confirming sufficient supplies and no distributor dry-outs, even as panic buying is reported.
India's government dismissed reports of fertiliser shortages, stating supply remains stable and adequate for the Rabi 2025-26 season with availability exceeding demand across urea, DAP, MOP, NPK and SSP. For Kharif 2026, 46% of estimated requirement is already available as opening stock, significantly higher than normal levels.
China is reportedly planning to effectively suspend sulphuric acid exports by May 2026 to prioritize domestic fertiliser production and food security amid global supply chain risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
