Over six weeks, US Bitcoin ETFs lost $5.94 billion, the longest unbroken outflow since 2024, with Bitcoin dropping to a 21-month low near $58,000. Despite this, long-term holders (owning 83% of circulating BTC) remain unchanged, indicating capitulation among newer ETF investors rather than a broader market shift.
New research from Galaxy Digital suggests Bitcoin's cycle low may occur at higher price levels than in past bear markets, potentially between $62,000 and $53,600. Analysis indicates a less speculative market and a 'calm top' could raise the floor, though demand data shows a cautious picture.
A 2011 Casascius physical Bitcoin coin holding 25 BTC has moved this week, converting the artifact into spendable cryptocurrency. The coin, valued at $1.78 million, was transferred to a new address, marking a custody transition rather than a confirmed sale, amid a broader market selloff.
The CLARITY Act has stalled in Senate Banking deliberations, threatening comprehensive crypto market rules. Galaxy Research gives it roughly 50-50 odds of passage this year. The stall creates an unintended experiment: if exchanges can operate in the unsettled regulatory perimeter around stablecoin rewards, the market could generate empirical data on whether exchange-funded inducements actually drain bank deposits—a debate currently fought with projections ranging from $2.1 billion to $6.6 trillion. The stablecoin market stands at over $320 billion against $19.1 trillion in US commercial bank deposits.
