The newsletter argues that a wider disruption to Iranian oil flows could push crude sharply higher, with risks also building around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea. It also highlights Iraq investment plans and bullish calls on several energy names.
Three Saudi crude oil tankers bound for China and India reversed course in the Red Sea, heading for the Suez Canal after Yemen's Houthi militia warned against using Saudi ports, signaling disruptions to global energy supplies and trade.
South Korea's industry ministry confirms stable crude oil supply for July-September despite renewed Middle East tensions, including Houthi rebel threats in the Red Sea. The ministry is closely monitoring major shipping routes and has secured sufficient oil.
The IEA has increased its 2026 global oil supply forecast by 0.2 million bpd, projecting a 3.7 million bpd fall this year to 102.6 million bpd. Supply could reach 110.1 million bpd in 2027, boosted by Middle East transit recovery and OPEC+ growth, though risks remain.
Australia is expected to avoid a recession despite substandard growth, while living standards are set to languish. In UK politics, Nigel Farage resigns as MP but will fight a byelection. The World Cup saw Argentina come from 2-0 down to beat Egypt 3-2 with a Messi goal.
Economists believe Australia will avoid recession despite a projected contraction in GDP per capita, citing falling oil prices and a tax cut. While inflation and interest rates remain concerns, future growth is anticipated, boosted by datacenters and AI.
Oil prices dropped over $2 per barrel after the US and Iran signed an interim agreement to end the Iran war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and waive US sanctions on Tehran's oil, boosting the oil supply outlook. This deal initiates a 60-day negotiation period.
Oil prices fell Monday after US-Iran talks in Switzerland concluded with Tehran securing waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, easing concerns over potential supply disruptions. Brent crude futures were down 1.90% at $79.04 per barrel.
OPEC+ countries plan to boost oil supply by nearly 14 million bpd from 2025 levels to 64.5 million bpd by 2050, increasing their global market share to 52%. By 2030, supply is projected at 55.3 million bpd, with non-OPEC+ supply also rising.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais dismissed the IEA's prediction of an oil supply glut, citing a lack of factual basis. He emphasized OPEC's focus on fundamentals rather than speculative forecasts, warning that such headlines increase market volatility.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has slightly increased its 2026 global oil supply forecast by 0.2 mln bpd. However, it projects a significant decline of 3.9 mln bpd for 2024, with supply falling to 102.4 mln bpd. A recovery is anticipated in 2027.
A war launched by Donald Trump against Iran in late February, aiming for regime change and military destruction, has concluded with a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite initial ambitious goals, Iran withstood intense bombing, emerging with greater leverage. The agreement, a 60-day ceasefire extension, defers complex issues like Iran's nuclear program and sanctions relief to future negotiations.
A war launched by Donald Trump against Iran in late February, with goals of regime change and military destruction, has concluded with a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Despite initial ambitions, Iran withstood intense bombing, emerging with greater leverage. The agreement, a 60-day ceasefire extension, defers complex issues like nuclear program limitations and sanctions relief to future negotiations.
Italy and Japan are strengthening diplomatic ties, focusing on supply chains and technology cooperation. The leaders aim to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals and boost semiconductor manufacturing through joint ventures.
Union Minister Suresh Gopi stated that fuel prices will be reviewed based on crude oil supply, amid recent hikes in petrol, diesel, and LPG due to West Asian conflict disruptions. Minister Hardeep Singh Puri will make the final decision.
Iran's Kharg Island, a key oil export terminal, is a focal point in the US-Israel war, with potential strikes threatening global oil prices and Iran's revenue. US President Trump has threatened to "assume total control" of Iran's oil industry.
Russia and Saudi Arabia, major oil producers, are strengthening ties through OPEC+ and joint ventures, despite Western sanctions on Russia and UAE's exit from OPEC. Their alliance aims to stabilize oil prices and explore economic diversification, though underlying tensions and differing strategic goals persist.
South Korea's Industry Minister announced that expected crude oil imports for August are steadily increasing, projected to reach 80% of normal levels by July. The government has secured alternative natural gas supplies and extended its oil reserve swap program to mitigate potential disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict.
India navigates oil supply shock from Strait of Hormuz closure via crude diversification and increased Russian imports. Despite disruptions, strategic sourcing and alternative routes ensure energy security, though LPG/LNG supplies are impacted.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on G7 leaders at a Paris conference to help combat Iranian terrorism by targeting its financing. He proposed a new framework for "aggressive and targeted" sanctions, emphasizing the need for defined timelines and reviewing outdated designations to focus on sophisticated evasion schemes.
The US Treasury has granted a 30-day extension for countries to import Russian oil already at sea, aiming to mitigate supply shortages exacerbated by the Iran war and reduce price pressures. This policy shift aims to assist developing nations while potentially impacting Russia's war financing.
Over 500 Ukrainian drones attacked Russia overnight, killing three near Moscow. Romania found an unexploded projectile. The US let a sanctions waiver for Russian oil purchases lapse, impacting India.
The ECB may raise interest rates to combat inflation driven by the Iran war's oil supply shock, despite risks to the Eurozone economy, as even dovish policymakers lose confidence in a quick resolution.
The IEA warns of impending oil price spikes due to rapidly depleting global inventories and supply losses exceeding 12.8 million barrels per day since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began, with peak summer demand expected to worsen the situation.
