Pesquisa do ACDC revela que 152 carteiras na Polymarket lucraram US$ 8 milhões apostando em eventos militares dos EUA, possivelmente usando informações privilegiadas. O fenômeno atrai apostadores imitadores, levantando riscos de segurança nacional.
South Korean authorities blocked access to crypto prediction market Polymarket, ruling it provides an illegal gambling environment. The commission rejected Polymarket's decentralization defense, joining France, Australia, and Germany.
An anonymous trader's massive $414,895 'No' position on Polymarket's CLARITY Act market—worth 2.6 times the available liquidity—highlights how thin order books can distort political probability metrics ahead of a crucial Senate vote.
Prediction markets including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad show a strong consensus of roughly 71% to 74% odds that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming September meeting.
PredictionBubbles aggregates prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, offering interactive visualizations. Recent developments include Kalshi's 800% institutional trading volume growth, ProCap Financial integration, and research findings on market calibration and trading patterns.
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging they operate unlicensed sports betting platforms, misleading users on legality; companies claim federal regulation supersedes state laws.
New York City Council is investigating prediction market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi over deceptive marketing, targeting minors, and facilitating insider trading.
La Lazio e Polymarket hanno risolto consensualmente il contratto di sponsorizzazione dopo soli quattro mesi. La decisione fa seguito al provvedimento dell'Adm che ha inserito la piattaforma di prediction market tra i siti proibiti.
A federal judge ordered a stay on a CFTC civil case against US soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who faces criminal charges for allegedly using nonpublic information to profit over $400,000 on Polymarket contracts regarding Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Joshua Pederson, father of a 12-year-old cancer survivor, condemns prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for allowing bets on clinical trial outcomes, arguing it creates unethical incentives and distances bettors from the human cost.
Le Clarity Act, texte clé sur la régulation des cryptomonnaies aux États-Unis, ne sera pas voté avant les vacances estivales du Sénat. Ce report provoque un effondrement de la confiance des traders sur Polymarket.
A federal judge ruled that Utah can enforce its strict anti-gambling laws on prediction markets like Kalshi, a significant win for states seeking to regulate these platforms.
L'approbation de Donald Trump sur sa gestion économique chute à 32%, un niveau inédit. Parallèlement, les marchés prédictifs comme Polymarket montrent une probabilité de 45% pour un Congrès entièrement démocrate en 2026, tandis que des enquêtes pour délits d'initiés sont lancées.
Michelle Bond seeks to exclude her husband Ryan Salame's guilty plea from her campaign finance trial. Separately, former congressman George Santos was fined by the CFTC for insider trading on Kalshi, and US soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke moved to dismiss charges over Polymarket bets related to a Venezuelan military operation.
Prediction markets doubt the longevity of the US-Iran ceasefire, with a Polymarket contract indicating 50-50 odds of a 14-day halt in US strikes, amid skepticism fueled by Trump's readiness for renewed action and Iran's denial of direct negotiations.
Polymarket, piattaforma internazionale di mercati di previsione, è stata bloccata in Italia dall'Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli dal 27 luglio, considerata un operatore di scommesse non autorizzato. Simili restrizioni sono state imposte anche in Francia, Turchia, Spagna e Paesi Bassi.
Un trader affirme sur X avoir transformé 1 000 dollars en plus de 16 000 dollars en dix semaines grâce à des prompts Grok sur les marchés prédictifs. Cette performance, invérifiable et utilisée à des fins promotionnelles, intervient alors que Grok s'intègre officiellement à Polymarket et Kalshi, malgré des résultats contrastés pour les IA dans le trading réel.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are experiencing significant institutional growth. Firms and AI agents use event contracts for price discovery and trader evaluation, with monthly volumes reaching billions, despite challenges in execution and potential for concentrated edge.
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi saw $5.57B in World Cup trading volume, pushing the sector into mainstream sports betting. While a few traders captured most profits, the surge highlights potential commercial applications but also intensifies US regulatory scrutiny over whether these platforms are derivatives or gambling.
France's gambling regulator, ANJ, has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, a crypto prediction-market platform, after its earlier transaction geofence was circumvented. The ANJ deems Polymarket an unauthorized gambling offering, citing addiction and integrity risks.
La finale du Mondial a généré 5,69 milliards de dollars de volume sur les marchés prédictifs Kalshi et Polymarket. Cette croissance massive attire de nouveaux acteurs mais déclenche une bataille réglementaire entre la CFTC et neuf États américains sur la classification des contrats sportifs.
Hyperliquid plans a HIP-4 upgrade allowing external operators to create prediction markets, challenging Polymarket. Deployers must stake 500,000 HYPE ($31.7M), with validators retaining broad oversight. This aims to expand market creation beyond validators, mirroring the success of HIP-3's perpetual futures.
Türkiye, Milli Piyango İdaresi Genel Müdürlüğü kararıyla yasa dışı bahis gerekçesiyle Polymarket platformuna erişimi engelledi. Bu yasak, Fransa, Almanya ve Rusya gibi diğer ülkelerin benzer kısıtlamalarının ardından geldi ve Paribu'nun entegrasyonunu etkileyebilir.
L'Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ) a ordonné le blocage de la plateforme de paris prédictifs Polymarket en France depuis le 16 juillet. Cette décision fait suite à une offre de jeux d'argent non autorisée, des soupçons de paris truqués et l'absence de vérification d'identité, malgré un géoblocage antérieur contourné.
