Prediction market traders are betting on an OpenAI model release, internally called Astra (GPT-6), by late September. This optimism persists despite OpenAI's August 7 announcement that it is delaying the release due to significant cybersecurity risks.
Prediction markets including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad show a strong consensus of roughly 71% to 74% odds that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming September meeting.
PredictionBubbles aggregates prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, offering interactive visualizations. Recent developments include Kalshi's 800% institutional trading volume growth, ProCap Financial integration, and research findings on market calibration and trading patterns.
Federal regulators have launched a review of 'mention markets' where bettors wager on public figures' word choices. Kalshi has removed sports-related mention markets amid the CFTC inquiry and following a scandal involving a teleprompter operator.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced an August 20 advisory committee meeting to discuss crypto regulation, AI, and prediction markets following congressional delays on digital asset legislation.
Democratic socialist State Rep. Francesca Hong lost the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by less than 1 percentage point, defying polls that predicted a 20-point win. This polling miss, along with others in Minnesota and Michigan, highlights challenges in predicting primary outcomes amid a progressive surge within the Democratic Party.
New York City Council is investigating prediction market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi over deceptive marketing, targeting minors, and facilitating insider trading.
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has become the frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination on prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, leading California Governor Gavin Newsom, though traditional polls still place Kamala Harris in the top spot.
FlightAware has filed a federal lawsuit in New York against prediction markets platform Kalshi, alleging trademark infringement and reputational damage due to unauthorized betting markets on commercial flight cancellations.
A federal judge ordered a stay on a CFTC civil case against US soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who faces criminal charges for allegedly using nonpublic information to profit over $400,000 on Polymarket contracts regarding Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) cancels $6.4B CRO treasury and prediction market integrations with Crypto.com, opting for a merger with energy firm TAE, citing market conditions and shifting priorities.
Recent quarterly earnings reports from Flutter Entertainment, DraftKings, Coinbase, and Robinhood highlight rapid growth and expanding competition in the prediction markets sector.
Nine Democratic senators urged CFTC Chair Michael Selig to ban prediction markets allowing bets on wildfires, warning the contracts incentivize arson, insider trading, and profit from disasters.
A federal judge ruled that Utah can enforce its strict anti-gambling laws on prediction markets like Kalshi, a significant win for states seeking to regulate these platforms.
US senators sent a letter to the CFTC questioning plans to crack down on prediction markets offering bets on wildfires, citing risks of arson and minimized community suffering.
A group of Democratic US senators warned the CFTC that prediction markets allowing bets on wildfires could incentivize arson and minimize community suffering, citing platforms like Polymarket.
A father shares his emotional turmoil as his 12-year-old son undergoes a clinical trial for recurring cancer, just as prediction market Kalshi moves to allow financial bets on FDA decisions and clinical trial results.
Several US senators wrote a letter to the CFTC inquiring about plans to crack down on prediction markets offering contracts to bet on wildfires, citing risks of arson and profiting off community suffering.
Australia's corporate watchdog ASIC has issued its strongest warning yet against offshore prediction markets, which are illegal in the country and offer no consumer protection, with Alan Kirkland comparing them to gambling.
The CLARITY Act faces an uncertain path in the Senate during its final week before the August recess, with ongoing disputes over government ethics and stablecoin rewards. Prediction markets indicate low odds of the bill becoming law this year, potentially pushing the legislative fight into September.
New York has sued prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operates an illegal gambling business by offering event contracts. The lawsuit seeks to halt operations, recover illegal gains, and impose penalties, while Kalshi defends its federally licensed status amid an escalating jurisdictional dispute with the CFTC.
Prediction markets doubt the longevity of the US-Iran ceasefire, with a Polymarket contract indicating 50-50 odds of a 14-day halt in US strikes, amid skepticism fueled by Trump's readiness for renewed action and Iran's denial of direct negotiations.
Robinhood is discussing a partnership with Crypto.com to offer yes-or-no event contracts in its prediction markets hub, expanding its 2025-launched platform initially facilitated by Kalshi and later by ForecastEx and Rotella.
Bitcoin recovered to $66,347, holding 200 EMA support, despite a bearish 'death cross' and institutional caution reflected in the Coinbase Premium Index. Mixed signals from technicals and macro factors like upcoming tech earnings and the pending Clarity Act create market uncertainty.
