2026 NBA Draft Mock: Dybantsa Leads Unusually Strong Top Tier

The 2026 NBA draft picture has come into focus, with the early-entry deadline passed on Friday, and the lottery less than two weeks away. Between the unusual amount of high-impact talent atop the board and the number of teams with quite a bit riding on this year's ping-pong balls, this draft continues to shape up as one of the more potentially consequential in recent memory.

AJ Dybantsa has emerged as the front-runner for No. 1, with Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson still the top names. The early-entry list for this class consists of just 71 players, down from 106 in 2025. It's the fewest early declarations in more than 20 years. A flood of prospects opted to return to college, thinning the depth of this draft outside the lottery, something NBA teams anticipated all season due to the impact of NIL, allowing D-I programs to spend competitively and retain talent.

Still, only three players we projected as first-rounders — Thomas Haugh (Florida), Braylon Mullins (UConn) and Motiejus Krivas (Arizona) — opted against entering the draft, keeping the first-round picture largely stable. How the next month plays out will determine just how deep the class becomes, with 16 of the 20 prospects we project in the 15-35 range still holding the ability to return to college if they choose.

The NBA will convene in Chicago on May 10 for the lottery and combine, formally kicking off a busy predraft cycle. Using the default lottery order, this mock serves to project what the draft might look like if teams selected today. These projections are not a ranking of the top prospects — for that, consult ESPN's top 100. These projections are informed by ongoing conversations with NBA executives and scouts, as well as my own evaluation process from time spent on the road at games and watching film.

1. Washington Wizards* — AJ Dybantsa, SF, BYU Freshman 2025-26 stats: 25.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists in 35 games

Dybantsa moves atop the mock after an excellent close to the season, with NBA executives broadly viewing him as the probable No. 1 choice. Having said that, there is no true consensus, and this outcome still hangs on the decision-making process of whichever team wins the lottery. Dybantsa has elite physical traits, major scoring upside as his skills develop and room to grow into a positive defender, checking all the boxes NBA teams look for in a future star at a coveted position.

The Wizards went 1-26 in their final 27 games and secured the best possible draft positioning: This pick (which was top-eight protected to the Knicks) can drop no lower than fifth. With Trae Young and Anthony Davis on board, Dybantsa would complement the Wizards' personnel neatly and join a team shifting gears toward competing in the East.

2. Indiana Pacers* — Darryn Peterson, PG/SG, Kansas Freshman 2025-26 stats: 20.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists in 24 games

Peterson remains a real candidate at No. 1 as teams continue to dig into his strange season. Recent feedback from front office sources has been largely positive, with Peterson described as a serious worker who is passionate about his craft, with questions centering more about his health. NBA teams are hoping for clarity from his medical evaluation at the combine, with a scary preseason full-body cramping episode having impacted his season physically and mentally.

Teams holding top picks will want to feel comfortable that they'll be able to get the best version of him, the one many execs viewed as a simple No. 1 choice entering the fall. The Pacers will sweat out the next few weeks in anticipation of a lottery that will alter the path of the franchise: There is a 52.1% chance their pick lands in the top four, and they keep it. If not, it will go to the Clippers, who could wind up selecting fifth or sixth. Adding Peterson's elite shooting and bringing back a healthy Tyrese Haliburton could easily vault the Pacers back into the playoff picture next season.

3. Brooklyn Nets* — Cameron Boozer, PF/C, Duke Freshman 2025-26 stats: 22.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists in 38 games

While Duke fell just short of a Final Four berth, Boozer lived up to his lofty expectations, cleaning up player of the year awards and proving one of the most dependable freshman stars ever. He has the makings of a foundational, tone-setting player, and while his limited vertical lift might cap some of his upside, at some point, it's hard to argue with the results he has gotten.

Boozer is a longer shot at No. 1, but teams largely feel comfortable with the production they're going to get from him. Brooklyn has a lot riding on this lottery, as it continues to look for a young franchise player to anchor the team and doesn't have control of its 2027 first, which is owed to Houston. Boozer is the safest choice on the board in that respect, as the Nets try to accelerate the competitive timeline of a young roster.

4. Utah Jazz* — Caleb Wilson, PF/C, North Carolina Freshman 2025-26 stats: 19.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists in 24 games

Wilson's pair of hand injuries didn't impact his standing on draft boards, with lottery teams continuing to debate internally how he projects relative to the other top prospects, particularly the more polished but less physically gifted Boozer. He will have an opportunity to make his case in predraft workouts, where his athletic gifts should stand out, and teams will want to better assess his skill level and shooting.

There are potential scenarios where he can go higher than this, depending on how the lotto order breaks. Utah won a draft tiebreaker with Sacramento, meaning its 1-8 protected pick can fall further than No. 8 — extinguishing the Jazz's obligation to the Thunder. They don't control their own pick in 2027 and should be thinking best-available prospect here, with Wilson making sense as a long-term centerpiece, even with the addition of Jaren Jackson Jr. to strengthen their frontcourt at the deadline.

5. Sacramento Kings* — Darius Acuff Jr., PG, Arkansas Freshman 2025-26 stats: 23.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 6.4 assists in 36 games

Excitement around Acuff crested in March, with a torrid stretch elevating his draft status and positioning him for a potential leap into the top five. Opinions around the NBA vary on where he stacks up amid a very talented guard class — there is curiosity around how he'll measure physically at the combine, but little doubt he has the chops to help run a team next season.

There is an expectation that Acuff will need to be insulated defensively on a winning team, but he is a highly skilled and the most polished point guard in the class. This is a critical draft for the Kings, considering the state of the current roster and the desperate need for a younger player to help transition into the next iteration of the team. Sacramento looks like a friendly landing spot for any of the top guards. Acuff would instantly help elevate their offense and establish a new identity for the team moving forward.

6. Memphis Grizzlies* — Keaton Wagler, PG/SG, Illinois Freshman 2025-26 stats: 17.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.2 assists in 37 games

Wagler led Illinois all the way to the Final Four to cap one of the more remarkable prospect rises ever, entering the season as a curiosity for scouts and finishing as a bona fide top talent in an exceptional lottery class. While scouts expect it will take time for him to add strength and adjust physically to the NBA, the fact that Wagler is 6-foot-6, plays with change of pace, and adds value at both guard positions points to major long-term upside as his body matures and he gains experience. His unusual trajectory and rapid improvement bode well.

Memphis made up significant ground in the race to the bottom in the second half of the season, going 2-21 in its final 23 games and landing a 9% chance at the No. 1 pick. Wagler would be a malleable building block as the Grizzlies continue to remake their roster and is capable of playing alongside Ja Morant if he returns to Memphis next season.

7. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans)* — Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston Freshman 2025-26 stats: 16.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.2 assists in 37 games

Flemings' explosive speed and winning intangibles swayed NBA executives this season, and he projects as a lead playmaker who puts downhill pressure on defenses and should also add value as a defender. The continued progression of his jump shot is key for him and something he'll need to demonstrate effectively in team workouts, but he got positive results at Houston (38.7% from 3, 84.5% from the line) and has shown growth already in that area.

Atlanta won the 7/8 tiebreak with Dallas, a favorable draw that gives it higher priority if neither pick jumps on lottery night. Without a long-term point guard on the roster, the Hawks are another team that will look hard at the backcourt players in the lottery. They won't need to rely immediately on whoever they select, and Flemings would be a good developmental fit, provided the Hawks believe in his shooting development.

8. Dallas Mavericks* — Mikel Brown Jr., PG, Louisville Freshman 2025-26 stats: 18.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists in 21 games

Brown's back injury made it difficult for him to boost his stock in-season, making the predraft process critical to show teams he is healthy and remind them of his significant offensive talent. His positional size, shooting ability and playmaking skill should stand out in workout settings, but he needs a positive spring to work his way further up the board in a guard-heavy lottery, with Acuff, Wagler and Flemings all having outstanding seasons.

There are still scouts who view Brown's upside as the highest of the group, but it might take some work for him to leap ahead of the other top guards. The Mavericks have a long-term need at the point and will be hoping to find a running mate for Cooper Flagg, as they won't control their own first again until 2031. Brown would be the biggest upside swing left on the board if available here, but also comes with a little more risk in his profile than some alternatives.

9. Chicago Bulls* — Brayden Burries, SG, Arizona Freshman 2025-26 stats: 16.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists in 39 games

Burries endeared himself to teams over the course of the season as a steady two-way contributor with room to grow as a scorer. Scouts see a intriguing upside as he continues to improve as an on-ball playmaker, but he is a solid-enough shooter to play the two, giving him appealing versatility. He is older than other freshman guards in the lottery and not as toolsy or flashy, but might be closer to directly impacting winning.

It remains to be seen who will ultimately be drafting for the Bulls, with the franchise searching for a lead executive to replace Arturas Karnisovas and a new coach, with Billy Donovan choosing to depart. Chicago's pathway to relevance in the East remains somewhat foggy, and the Bulls should be targeting the best available talent at this spot. Burries would be a solid fit on the perimeter next to Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis and a long-term upgrade on Chicago's current backcourt options.

10. Milwaukee Bucks* — Nate Ament, SF/PF, Tennessee Freshman 2025-26 stats: 16.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists in 35 games

While Ament's stock has slipped from an early top-five projection, he had productive stretches this season within a tricky team context and has room to help himself in workouts. Although scouts are split on whether he has star upside or projects better as a long-term supporting player, there is still plenty of intrigue around the opportunity to select a prospect of his caliber later in the lottery. As a tall skill player with real shotmaking upside, Ament fits a player archetype that teams often love to swing on.

How Milwaukee resolves the Giannis Antetokounmpo situation might have a bearing on what direction the Bucks go with their pick, which will be the worst of their own and New Orleans' (giving them a slim chance to pick in the top four if both picks jump). The Bucks desperately need backcourt help but should be thinking best available, considering the uncertainty around the team's trajectory.

11. Golden State Warriors* — Karim Lopez, SF/PF, New Zealand Breakers 2025-26 stats: 11.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists in 31 games

The top overseas-based player in a thin international prospect class, Lopez has a chance to help himself in predraft workouts, where teams will gain a better sense of his physical traits and skill level coming off a positive year in the NBL. Showing progress as a perimeter shooter in those settings would help his case to sneak into the top 10, as he jockeys for position with Ament and Yaxel Lendeborg, two other versatile forwards.

Golden State enters an uncertain offseason, with Steve Kerr's future unclear and a need to consider the long-term health of the roster, still anchored by 38-year-old Stephen Curry. Selecting a younger player such as Lopez, who has the experience to potentially slot in early on his rookie deal, might help mesh the short and long-term goals.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LA Clippers)* — Yaxel Lendeborg, SF/PF, Michigan Senior 2025-26 stats: 15.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists in 40 games

Lendeborg is set to benefit from his instrumental role in Michigan's title run, where his versatility shone through on both sides of the ball, and he shot 52.9% from 3 in his final 11 games. Advanced age aside, he should be an attractive option for teams in the lottery that are angling to win next year, with a skill set that will be additive on any roster.

The Clippers falling out of the play-in means the 64-win Thunder, who own this pick, have a long-shot opportunity on lottery night. The Thunder also own the 17th pick and will have an incentive to try and consolidate some of their assets, with minimal roster-spot wiggle room in the offseason. Lendeborg would be a ready-made addition to their frontcourt, and his size and versatility would be valuable immediately on a contender.

13. Miami Heat* — Labaron Philon Jr., PG/SG, Alabama Sophomore 2025-26 stats: 22.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists in 33 games

Philon helped himself significantly this season, continuing his ascent up draft boards with a strong campaign for the Crimson Tide. He has the physical profile teams covet at 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, and his ability to play both backcourt spots gives him positional versatility. The Heat have been active in the lottery in recent years and will be looking to add another building block to their roster.

(*) Denotes lottery pick that will be set in a drawing on May 10.