ASIO holiday threat assessment under scrutiny after Bondi attack

ASIO issued its annual holiday threat assessment less than two weeks before the terrorist attack at Bondi Beach but did not identify heightened risks to the Jewish festival, despite earlier declaring antisemitism as a top "threat to life".

The ABC has learned the December 2 assessment, distributed to police and government agencies, warned that terrorists could target religious festivals like Christmas and Hanukkah, but did not single out distinct risks to Hanukkah celebrations and said violent protests were more likely.

Police and government agencies relied on the intelligence agency's annual holiday season threat assessment to guide security preparations for major events in December and January.

NSW Police assigned only four officers to periodically monitor the Chanukah by the Sea celebration at Bondi, the most prominent Australian event during Hanukkah, despite requests from a Jewish security organisation for a permanent police presence.

Days earlier, the Community Security Group (CSG) had warned police about the "heightened risk" of a terrorist attack at Hanukkah celebrations, including the Bondi event where 15 people were later killed by alleged Islamic State (IS) terrorists.

The royal commission investigating the attack is expected to question ASIO director-general Mike Burgess and police about security preparations for Hanukkah at the next phase of public hearings, starting Monday.

The commission has said ASIO will face scrutiny over whether it "understood and acted" on its own assessments of a likely terrorist attack and ongoing antisemitic violence.

Mr Burgess has previously said ASIO had no intelligence indicating an attack on Hanukkah celebrations was being planned before the Bondi massacre.

For more than a year before the attack, Mr Burgess had publicly warned that a terrorist attack in Australia was probable.

In February 2025, he declared antisemitism ASIO's highest priority "in terms of threat to life" and said the war in Gaza was increasing the terrorism threat.

Mr Burgess is also expected to face questions about how the gunmen slipped off the intelligence radar after first coming to ASIO's attention in 2019, and whether a century-low share of ASIO resources devoted to counterterrorism weakened the agency's response.

The commission is also investigating why NSW Police left security planning for the Bondi event to local officers at Eastern Beaches Police Area Command rather than Operation Shelter, a taskforce established to protect the Jewish community.

Elevated threat at high-profile event

Twelve days before the Bondi Hanukkah event, ASIO's "Holiday period 2025-26: violent protest and terrorism threat assessment" document warned that "overtly religious" events could be "considered for targeting by violent extremists".

According to the public version of the commission's interim report, the assessment referenced an October attack on a synagogue in Manchester, in which an IS-inspired terrorist killed two worshippers on the holy day of Yom Kippur.

The assessment warned police that the Middle East conflict could trigger political violence in Australia but said violent protests were "more likely … rather than acts of terrorism".

Further details remain confidential, but sources familiar with the document said that while it identified Hanukkah among the holiday period's religious festivals, it did not single out Hanukkah events as facing a distinct or elevated threat.

The massacre unfolded amid a global surge in anti-Western plots and attacks linked to exhortations from IS over the previous two years to target Jewish and Christian religious events in response to the Gaza war.

The royal commission's interim report noted that previous ASIO holiday season threat assessments to police had explicitly warned of risks during Hanukkah, in particular attacks on "Jewish and Israeli interests" in 2023 and "violent protest and provocative activities" in 2024.

ASIO had separately issued an intelligence report in response to the October 2025 Manchester synagogue attack, warning of "the enduring threat to Jewish interests … in Australia", particularly at crowded places and on holy days "leading up to Hanukkah in December".

On December 5, nine days before the Bondi attack, ASIO warned industry and government subscribers to its broader outreach service, which distributes less sensitive threat advice, that crowded events, including religious celebrations, were the most likely terrorist targets in Australia.

The royal commission hearings, some of which will be closed to the public, will also scrutinise why ASIO did not re-examine Bondi attackers Sajid and Naveed Akram in the years after investigating their links to a Sydney-based IS cell in 2019.

The pair were later able to legally acquire firearms and travel overseas, including to Central Asia and a former IS hotspot in the Philippines, without attracting renewed scrutiny.

ASIO's original investigation concluded the father and son did not pose a terrorist threat or support Islamic State — an assessment later questioned by former ASIO chief Dennis Richardson, who served as a special adviser to the royal commission until March.

An internal ASIO review has found no intelligence failure or negligence based on the information the agency possessed before the Bondi attack.

ASIO declined to answer questions from the ABC, including whether its holiday threat assessment was adequate and whether it contributed to security gaps at Chanukah by the Sea, citing the ongoing royal commission.