Big win empowers BJP to recast Assam politics

The BJP’s sweeping Assam victory is being seen as both a consolidation of Hindutva politics and a weakening of traditional Assamese regionalist forces. Analysts say the party has successfully positioned itself as the protector of Assamese identity while also deepening Hindu consolidation, particularly after the 2023 delimitation exercise. The result sidelines regional outfits such as the AGP, Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad, while further marginalising Bengali-speaking Muslims and weakening the AIUDF’s hold over them.

Guwahati: Buoyed by a sweeping mandate in Assam, the BJP is likely to sharpen its Hindutva focus in the state, which observers say could sideline Assamese regionalism, even as many voters credit welfare measures for the party's emphatic win.

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Though instrumental in securing victory, the ruling alliance's beneficiary politics may test the new government's finances if sustaining welfare commitments becomes difficult.

Also Read: Beyond the hat-trick: BJP’s Assam win marks a shift to solo majority power

The NDA is set to form the government in Assam for the third consecutive term after securing a two-thirds majority, with a record high of 102 seats in the 126-member assembly, while the Congress-led opposition delivered its worst performance in recent times.

The BJP won 82 of the 90 seats it contested, while its allies -- the Bodoland People's Front (BPF), which contested 11 constituencies, and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), which fought in 26 -- bagged 10 seats each.

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The saffron party secured a majority on its own for the first time in the state. It won 60 seats in 2021 and 2016.

Political analyst Brojen Deka said, "When delimitation was carried out in 2023, the BJP had said that it had secured 103-105 seats for the Hindus. Going by its own image as espousing the cause of the Hindus, this result is also the expected lines."

He told PTI that the BJP has also projected itself as the "last saviour" of the Assamese community, and the party crossing 80 seats on its own indicates that the people have accepted it in this role.

"This effectively sidelines the 'jatiyotabadi' (regionalist) forces of the state, be it the AGP or opposition parties like the Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad. People have accepted the BJP as the one that will secure the community's future," Deka maintained.

While Raijor Dal increased its tally to two in this election, the AJP once again failed to taste success. Both were part of the Congress-led bloc.

Also Read: BJP’s big bang: Bengal breached, Assam secured; Vijay, Congress flip the south

Deka said, "The BJP's win will further corner the Muslims, especially the Bengali-speaking ones, who have been at the receiving end of the chief minister's vitriolic attacks."

The political analyst also pointed out that the AIUDF, which was viewed as taking up the clutches for the 'Miyas', has been rejected by the community as the party could manage only two seats this time.

'Miya' is originally a pejorative term used for Bengali-speaking Muslims in Assam, and the non-Bengali-speaking people generally identify them as Bangladeshi immigrants.

Deka further said the beneficiary schemes under which money was directly transferred to the accounts of the people had a major impact in swaying voters in favour of the ruling alliance.

"The government had promised a lot while seeking re-election. How it can actually carry it through for the next five years will be a challenge," he said while pointing at the mounting debt on the state exchequer.

"If the government fails to deliver as promised, it will lead to discontent among the people. And the popularity it now enjoys could fade easily. Keeping the public happy is essential," Deka asserted.

However, for the general public, the BJP-led alliance retaining power means continuation of its schemes and benefits.

Kalpana Kumar, a housewife, said that education has been subsidised. "We, women, are getting money to start our own ventures. Employment opportunities are being created. It is with the hope that these measures continue, the people have given the mandate," she said.

Dipak Dahal, who drives an app-based cab service in the state capital, credited the BJP government with clearing land of encroachments.

"It has given the indigenous people confidence that their rightful share will not be taken away. It has made us feel more secure about our future," he added.