BitMEX Co-Founder Predicts AI Boom Could Trigger 2008-Style Crisis, Send Bitcoin to $1 Million

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has stated that the debt-fueled expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure could culminate in a credit crisis similar to that of 2008. He predicts that the subsequent government-led liquidity response could drive the price of Bitcoin (BTC) to $1 million or higher.

In a blog post on Tuesday, Hayes argued that investors have incorrectly categorized spending on data centers and power infrastructure as high-growth technology investments, rather than as leveraged real estate. He anticipates that lenders will finance excessive construction projects before a predicted slowdown in AI capital expenditure exposes weaker borrowers.

This thesis links the trillion-dollar growth of AI infrastructure to a potential new source of liquidity for the crypto market. However, Hayes’s predictions of a crisis, government bailout, and a subsequent Bitcoin rally remain speculative.

Hayes characterized the AI boom as a “credit story like 2008 and not an earnings story like 2000.” He suggested that Bitcoin could trade between $60,000 and $70,000, with a potential downside to $50,000, before the credit cycle and the resulting liquidity response stimulate a recovery. Furthermore, Hayes forecast that Ether (ETH) would reach $5,000 by the end of the year and indicated that his firm, Maelstrom, intends to build a substantial position while selling out-of-the-money ETH put options.

Hayes’s latest outlook is consistent with his prior views on the dual effects of AI on crypto liquidity. On May 13, he posited that competition between the U.S. and China in AI would spur bank lending and fiat creation, which would benefit Bitcoin. Earlier, on June 4, Hayes had sold HYPE and NEAR tokens, warning that major AI-related listings could divert capital away from the crypto market.

Big Tech commits to $1 trillion in future leases

The scale of commitments underlying the AI boom is already evident. On Tuesday, Reuters reported that major technology companies including Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Amazon, and Alphabet have committed approximately $1.09 trillion to leases that have not yet commenced, primarily for data centers.

These commitments represent nearly four times the roughly $285 billion in lease liabilities that these companies have already recognized. However, Reuters clarified that the $1.09 trillion figure should not be treated as debt directly, as it represents undiscounted payments spread over several years.

Despite this, the financial strain is not uniform across these companies. A separate Reuters analysis indicated that Oracle’s debt was approximately 4.3 times its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). In contrast, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta had ratios below one.

Andrew Chang, an analyst at S&P Global, highlighted Oracle’s data-center leases, which have terms of 15 to 19 years, as a significant risk because its customer contracts typically last no more than five years.