Canada's Economy: Struggling but with Potential for a Stronger Future

Prime Minister Mark Carney has promised to reboot Canada's economy, building it into the "strongest in the G7".

He has spent weeks travelling overseas in the last year seeking to drum up business interest in Canada as an investment destination.

But there is no doubt the country's economy is struggling, and from tariffs on certain industries to younger Canadians struggling to find work or buy a home, some Canadians are feeling the pain more than others.

Five charts help illustrate the state of Canada's economy - and how it's performing compared to other wealthy nations.

As the country's economy recovers from the slowdown triggered by US tariffs, the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an influential global policy group, projects a modest improvement in gross domestic product (GDP) - growth of 1.7% - in 2027.

Earlier this month, data from the country's statistics agency said Canada had slipped into a technical recession - two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, in late 2025 and early 2026.

"The government is responding in real time to shifting global economic volatility and broad-based supply chain disruption with a serious plan to grow exports, create jobs and invest in productivity forward projects," said John Fragos, a spokesman for Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne.

Economists cautioned against panic, saying the country is likely to avoid a prolonged downturn especially given the small decline.

"Whether one chooses to divine the fact that we're in a recession or not really does miss the point," said Jeremy Kronick, president of the CD Howe Institute, a non-partisan economic think tank.

"I mean, it, the economy is weak, right?"

"That process is settling in during that time as the major investments, major changes to how the government operates, how we do major projects, how we have new trade agreements with other countries."

His Liberal government has plans to, among other actions, double Canada's non-US exports over the next decade by expanding trade relationships across Europe and Asia, and to fast track major infrastructure projects.

Dave McKay, CEO of the Royal Bank of Canada, the country's largest bank, cautioned during a talk hosted by Bloomberg earlier this month that the clock is ticking.

"We have to see tangible progress on a couple of these big ideas," he said. "The capital is impatient, and it will move where it thinks they can get the most sure and fastest return."

Kronick, of the CD Howe Institute, said uncertainty with Canada's largest trading partner, the US, is another headwind.

While the majority of products are exempt from US tariffs under the current free trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico - the USMCA - the White House has imposed tariffs on specific sectors, including 15% to 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper - the ones proving challenging to White - and 25% tariffs on vehicles.

"What's key is just that there are these different parts of the economy or the country that are affected differently," said Kronick.

"We've seen big changes in [auto hubs] Brampton and Windsor and changes where steel, aluminum, and autos are all impacted. I think they're experiencing it far more acutely than, perhaps, people in downtown Toronto."

Ottawa is negotiating with the US both to reduce these sectoral tariffs and on a review of the USMCA but have yet to reach a deal.

"I think at this point most people expect there to be some tariffs on whatever a deal looks like, but I think what's necessary now is just to know what that is, right?," Kronick said.

"If I know it's 10% fine, it's a 10% tax, and I can make my adjustments to my business accordingly, and we move on," he said.

Kronick said Canada's economy has some structural issues feeding the stagnation, such as trade barriers between provinces - things like different trucking requirements, or professional licensing - and a tax system that has become "uncompetitive, let's just say with, with other jurisdictions that we compete with".

But there are some fundamental strengths.

"If you were drawing up a country from scratch, a well-educated, well-resourced, not overpopulated country would be what you would want, right? So, I think Canada has all those things, all those features,"

"I think we just have to unlock them."

With files from Nadine Yousif