El Nino Developing Rapidly, WMO Warns of Extreme Weather Risks

Fuelled by unusually warm waters in the Pacific, El Nino is rapidly developing and is set to impact global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing risk of extreme weather in coming months, World Meteorological Organisation warned on Tuesday in an update that points to an "80% likelihood of El Nino forming in June-Aug".

This makes it almost certain that the conditions would severely weaken India's monsoon and turn June hotter than normal, as predicted by IMD last week.

While there's uncertainty over El Nino's peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it'll be "at least moderate - and possibly strong", said WMO, considered the most authoritative information source for govts.

It said the probabilities for El Nino event to continue until at least Nov are near or above 90% - this means its impact will be felt in India during entire four-month monsoon season till Sept when summer sowing takes place.

Record 2024 temps fuelled by intense El Nino: WMO

We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event — which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.

The most recent El Nino, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record, and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo.

Sensing the urgency, agriculture ministry held a meeting to review the country’s preparedness, with Union minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan asking farmers not to panic and directing vulnerable states to remain alert and work in coordination with Centre and various stakeholders so that farmers do not face problem during their Kharif sowing operations.

Interventions in such a situation include promotion of drought-tolerant varieties and less water-consuming crops such as millets; weather-based agro-advisory services; efficient water management; and location-specific adaptation strategies to minimise agricultural losses.

Chouhan emphasised that contingency plans should be activated up to district level and these plans should be implemented keeping in mind local conditions, available water, crop patterns, seed availability, sowing progress, rainfall intervals and district-specific risks so that farmers can receive practical and timely solutions.

It was noted during meeting that the water level in the country’s reservoirs is currently satisfactory, and overall storage is reported at 127% of normal level for this period.

IMD, meanwhile, said monsoon is expected to set in over Kerala around June 4, as against its normal onset date of June 1.

It has already predicted ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall with 60% chance of ‘deficient’ in the country.