Exit Polls Predict Hung Assembly in West Bengal, Neck-and-Neck Race with TMC and BJP

West Bengal could be on the cusp of "poriborton" with exit polls predicting a hung assembly that could mark the end of Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year-old rule in the state. Most of the exit polls projected a neck-and-neck race between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP in West Bengal. In Tamil Nadu, actor-politician Vijay’s TVK may end the DMK-AIADMK duopoly by emerging as the single largest party, according to one pollster, though most others give an edge to the DMK-Congress alliance.

In Assam, the BJP is predicted to score a hat-trick of victories over the Congress. In Kerala, the CPM-led LDF may be on its way out, marking the end of the only Left government in the country. In Puducherry, the ruling NDA is likely to retain power with a comprehensive victory over the Congress-DMK alliance.

Exit polls released on Wednesday after the conclusion of voting across four states and one Union Territory (UT) offered an indecisive picture, where entrenched incumbencies, rising challengers and new entrants may simultaneously shape electoral outcomes. With results scheduled for May 4, the projections reflect both continuity and churn across regions, underscoring how state-specific dynamics continue to define voter behaviour.

**Bengal a nail-biter!**

In West Bengal, the numbers point to one of the most fiercely fought contests in recent memory. While individual exit polls vary, the broader trend suggests a sharply polarised electorate split almost evenly between the TMC and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). A poll of polls placed both parties at approximately 145 seats each in the 294-member assembly, with smaller parties and independents expected to secure only a marginal presence. Such projections indicate not merely a competitive race but a possible structural shift in the state's politics. The BJP appears to have consolidated its position as the principal challenger, eroding the dominance of the ruling TMC. At the same time, the TMC's ability to retain parity in these projections suggests that the incumbent still commands significant grassroots support. The turnout itself, hovering around 90 percent in both phases of Bengal polls, which is highest since Independence, reflects intense voter engagement. Districts such as Purba Bardhaman, Hooghly, Nadia and Howrah reported particularly strong participation.

**Surprise awaits Tamil Nadu?**

In Tamil Nadu, the electoral story is more nuanced. Most exit polls indicate that the DMK-led alliance under chief minister M K Stalin is on course to retain power, albeit with a reduced margin compared to its 2021 performance. However, the emergence of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-politician Vijay, introduces a new variable into what has traditionally been a bipolar contest. While most projections stop short of placing TVK ahead of established parties, they consistently indicate that the party is cutting into existing vote bases. Even conservative estimates suggest that TVK could influence outcomes in multiple constituencies by redistributing votes, while more optimistic projections, such as those by Axis My India, point to a far more disruptive scenario where the party could secure between 98 and 120 seats. If such projections were to materialise, Tamil Nadu could witness a fundamental reconfiguration of its political structure, moving away from the long-standing DMK-AIADMK duopoly towards a more competitive, multi-polar framework. Projections for the AIADMK indicate a partial recovery but also highlight continuing organisational and leadership challenges.

**Status-quo in Assam?**

Assam, by contrast, appears to be heading towards political continuity. Exit polls from multiple agencies converge on a clear outcome of BJP's sweep under chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The poll of polls suggests the BJP could secure around 90 seats, significantly ahead of the Congress, which is projected to remain around the 30-seat mark. These projections reinforce the BJP’s entrenched position in the state. For the Congress, the numbers underline persistent structural challenges. The outcome would mark a third consecutive term for the BJP, further consolidating its dominance in the northeastern region.

**Congress predicted to win Kerala**

Kerala presents perhaps the most analytically complex scenario. Exit polls suggest a closely fought election between the Left Democratic Front and the Congress-led United Democratic Front. While the poll of polls indicates a slight edge for the UDF with around 72 seats in the 140-member assembly, the LDF is projected not far behind at approximately 63 seats. Divergent projections from agencies such as Axis MyIndia and PMARQ highlight the uncertainty. A defeat for the LDF would also have implications beyond the state, potentially weakening the national footprint of the Left. Campaign narratives in Kerala have evolved over time, with early phases dominated by issues such as corruption allegations, economic concerns, administrative controversies and localised grievances.

**NDA again in Puducherry?**

In Puducherry, exit polls suggest a clearer outcome. The ruling NDA, led locally by the AINRC-BJP combine, is projected to retain power against the Congress-DMK alliance. High voter turnout, recorded at nearly 89.83 percent, indicates strong public engagement. The entry of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam has added an additional layer of competition in Puducherry as well, particularly in constituencies with socio-political overlaps with neighbouring Tamil Nadu. However, most projections suggest that the incumbent alliance retains a decisive advantage.

Across all five contests, a few common themes emerge. First, the role of new political entrants, particularly in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, highlights the fluidity of voter preferences. Second, the varying degrees of incumbency advantage or disadvantage across states reflect the importance of local governance and regional narratives. As with all exit polls, these projections must be interpreted with caution. Variations in sampling, methodology and last-mile voter behaviour can produce results that diverge from exit poll estimates. With counting scheduled for May 4, the final verdict will determine whether the trends indicated by these projections translate into actual electoral outcomes or whether voters have delivered surprises. Until then, the exit polls serve as an informed but provisional outlook.