Hong Kong braces for 4-7 typhoons, some potentially super typhoons due to El Niño
Hızlı Bakış
- Hong Kong's observatory forecasts 4-7 typhoons by October, with El Niño potentially fueling super typhoons.
- Rapid intensification, a key challenge in meteorology, is difficult to predict with current technologies.
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Hong Kong's observatory has predicted a significant typhoon season, with the El Niño phenomenon potentially exacerbating storm intensity. Current meteorological technologies struggle to accurately forecast rapid intensification.
The observatory has predicted that Hong Kong will experience four to seven typhoons between now and October, and has warned that some could become super typhoons due to the El Nino phenomenon.
Forecasting rapid intensification, when a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained winds increase by 15 metres per second (49.2 feet per second) within a 24-hour period, or by 10m/s within 12 hours, has been one of the toughest challenges in meteorology.
“Rapid intensification rarely happens, and is highly unpredictable, making preventive measures and responses extremely likely to be delayed,” Li said in a statement issued by SIAT last week. SIAT is affiliated with the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Traditional numerical weather prediction technology could not accurately reflect the evolution of typhoon intensity, she said, while the statistical-dynamic method failed to capture the non-linear characteristics of typhoon intensity changes.
Açık Sorular
- What specific preventive measures can be taken?
- How will response strategies be adapted?
