Japan core inflation rises to 1.8% in March, first increase in five months

Core inflation in Japan accelerated for the first time in five months, rising to 1.8% in March as Iran war-fueled higher energy prices stoke consumer inflation. Government data showed the inflation figure — which strips out prices of fresh food — was in line with the 1.8% expected by economists polled by Reuters, and was higher than the 1.6% seen in February. Headline inflation came in at 1.5%, compared with 1.3% in February, staying below the central bank's 2% target for a second straight month. The so-called "core-core" inflation rate, which strips out prices of both food and energy, dipped to 2.4% from February's 2.5%, marking its lowest level since October 2024. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has been considering steps to cushion the economic blow from rising fuel costs, including curbing gasoline prices. Tokyo has also released crude from its stockpiles to mitigate an oil shock. Takaichi said in March that she plans to cap pump prices at an average of 170 yen ($1.07) per liter nationwide, adding that gasoline prices could potentially hit 200 yen per liter. A Bank of Japan survey released Monday showed that more than 83% of the respondents expect prices to be higher after one year. Bank of America analyst Takayasu Kudo said in note earlier this week that the effects of higher energy prices are likely to become more pronounced starting summer, which will push up both actual inflation and inflation expectations. "These developments should reinforce the case for the BOJ to maintain its gradual rate-hiking trajectory ... we still see a strong likelihood that the BOJ will maintain a bias toward further rate hikes over the medium term." The inflation figures come ahead of the BOJ's meeting on April 27 and 28, where the central bank is expected to hold rates at 0.75%, according to Citi analysts. Citi said the hold is "likely to be hawkish," adding that this was due to concerns about further yen depreciation and the risk of falling behind the curve on inflation. Japan had narrowly avoided a technical recession in the last quarter of 2025, with the country's economy growing at a revised 0.3% quarter on quarter and 1.3% year-on-year. On Thursday, Reuters, citing sources familiar with the BOJ's thinking, reported the central bank was set to cut its growth forecast for the 2026 fiscal year that began in ​April, and to also sharply revise up its inflation forecast for the fiscal year. Rice inflation, which had made headlines in mid-2025 for exceeding 100%, rose 6.8%, its slowest pace since January 2024.