Kerala Assembly Elections: Vote Counting Underway Amid High Stakes

Kerala's political fate hangs in the balance as vote counting for the April 9 Assembly elections begins. The ruling LDF, opposition UDF, and BJP-led NDA are vying for dominance in a high-stakes contest. Exit polls suggest a close fight, with the UDF aiming to unseat the LDF after a decade.

Kerala’s political fate will be sealed on Monday as counting of votes for the April 9 Assembly elections gets underway, bringing to an end an intense and closely fought contest among the ruling LDF, the opposition UDF and the BJP-led NDA. With the majority of pollsters giving an edge to the Congress-led United Democratic Front, the grand old party might see a revival in Kerala after a 10-year wait, at a time when it is facing repeated electoral failures in other parts of the country.

Kerala has a total of 2,71,42,952 voters, of whom 79.63 per cent cast their votes across 140 Assembly constituencies on April 9.

Why are Kerala polls important?

For the Congress-led UDF, which has remained out of power since 2016, the election is being viewed as a do-or-die battle. Buoyed by its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Assembly bypolls, and local body elections, the Congress-led front is optimistic, and discussions over a possible chief ministerial candidate have already surfaced within the party.

The UDF will aim for a major improvement from the 41 seats it won in the 2021 Assembly election, with some exit polls projecting 80-90 seats. The ruling LDF, however, citing forecasts of a close contest, remains hopeful of retaining power for a third consecutive term. Though matching its 2021 tally of 99 seats appears unlikely, the front expects to secure around 75-80 seats, claiming that the government's development initiatives will translate into votes.

A defeat for the LDF would also mark the first time since the 1960s that Left parties are not in power in any Indian state.

The BJP-led NDA, while not in contention to form the government, sees the election as crucial to expanding its footprint in Kerala after failing to win any seat in 2021. The alliance is also closely watching its vote share, targeting more than 20 per cent this time. The NDA had secured a 12.51 per cent vote share in the 2021 Assembly election, which rose to 19.23 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. However, its vote share dropped to around 15 per cent in the 2025 local body elections, with the BJP securing 14.76 per cent.

Dharmadam (Kannur)

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s contest from Dharmadam has turned the seat into a high-stakes leadership test. A key constituency in north Kerala, it is being closely tracked for signals on Vijayan’s personal mandate. While the UDF has mounted a coordinated challenge, the BJP-led NDA is also pushing to make inroads, making the result here a crucial indicator of both leadership strength and opposition gains.

Paravur (Ernakulam)

Leader of the Opposition V. D. Satheesan is in the fray from Paravur, making it a key barometer for the UDF. As one of the Congress-led alliance’s most prominent faces, his performance will offer insights into the opposition’s momentum and its ability to convert anti-incumbency sentiment into votes.

Thiruvananthapuram (capital constituency)

The state capital is witnessing a multi-cornered contest, with all three alliances fielding heavyweight candidates. The BJP is looking to build on recent local-body gains, while the UDF hopes to tap into urban discontent. The outcome will test the LDF’s grip over one of Kerala’s most politically significant constituencies.

Peravoor

Peravoor has turned into a prestige battle between KPCC president Sunny Joseph and CPM veteran K. K. Shylaja. Joseph is aiming for a fourth straight term, while Shylaja, contesting from a new seat, is looking to reaffirm her electoral appeal. The contest is widely seen as a direct test of leadership credibility.

Ambalapuzha

Ambalapuzha has gained symbolic importance after veteran CPM leader G. Sudhakaran entered the fray as an Independent with UDF backing. He faces sitting MLA H. Salam. A Sudhakaran victory could point to internal fissures within the LDF in a seat the CPM has held since 2011.

Nemom

Nemom remains a keenly watched triangular contest. CPM minister V. Sivankutty is defending the seat against BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar and Congress candidate K. S. Sabarinathan. With the BJP having previously won here, the outcome will be seen as a key test of its prospects in Kerala.

Palakkad

In Palakkad, the BJP is seeking to convert its incremental gains into a clear win, with Sobha Surendran leading the challenge against Congress candidate Ramesh Pisharody and CPM’s N. M. R. Razack.

Vattiyoorkavu (Thiruvananthapuram district)

Vattiyoorkavu is shaping up as a tight three-way contest, with CPI(M)’s V. K. Prasanth up against Congress leader K. Muraleedharan and BJP’s R. Sreelekha.

Thrissur

Thrissur is emerging as one of the most unpredictable battlegrounds, with all three fronts locked in a close fight. Known for swinging between alliances, the constituency could reflect broader shifts in voter sentiment in central Kerala.

Manjeshwaram (Kasaragod)

Manjeshwaram continues to be a volatile seat. BJP’s K. Surendran is once again contesting against IUML’s sitting MLA A. K. M. Ashraf, with the LDF also fielding a strong candidate. The seat often sees narrow margins, making it a key indicator of NDA’s growth in border regions.