The nominee to lead the Fed is an AI optimist who counts tech titans Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen among his friends.
Federal Reserve policymakers are divided on future interest rate hikes, with traders on Kalshi showing a slight majority (54%) expecting a hike this year. The Fed's June meeting minutes revealed differing views among participants regarding the appropriate rate level by year-end.
Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi anticipate elevated gas prices for an extended period due to renewed US-Iran strikes and uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz. Odds for prices above $3.50 on election day have risen significantly.
A significant options trade in the Russell 2000 IWM ETF, involving a $20 million strangle, suggests small-cap stocks may lead the next market move. This comes as tech stocks show signs of slowing momentum, with the Russell 2000 outperforming the Nasdaq-100 this year.
Oil prices dropped Thursday as mediators worked to prevent escalation between the US and Iran. Brent crude futures fell to $75.78 and WTI to $71.57, after earlier gains driven by US strikes and Iranian retaliation. Analysts suggest a "new normal" of skirmishes rather than a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Anthropic has appointed former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke to its Long-Term Benefit Trust. Bernanke will advise the AI company on how AI impacts the economy, aiming to ensure AI's long-term benefits outweigh its risks.
Costco reported a 10.6% year-over-year sales increase to $29.4 billion in June, falling slightly below expectations. U.S. comparable sales, excluding gasoline, rose 7.6%, a slowdown from May's 8.7%. Shares dropped over 4% as consumer concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty weigh on spending.
