Markets set for volatile week as Middle East tensions, oil prices and earnings drive trading

A mix of global tensions, corporate earnings and key economic cues is set to shape stock market movement in the coming week, which will be shorter due to a market holiday on Friday for Maharashtra Day. Developments in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, remain at the centre of investor attention, with their impact spilling over into crude oil prices and broader market sentiment. The ongoing situation has kept oil prices elevated, adding to inflation concerns and creating uncertainty for markets.

"Looking ahead, markets are expected to remain highly news-driven and volatile, with key focus on developments in US-Iran negotiations, trends in crude oil prices, and broader global cues. Stability or a decline in oil prices could help ease macro concerns and support risk sentiment, while any escalation or prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz may trigger renewed volatility and profit booking," Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, told PTI.

Analysts pointed out that the fourth-quarter earnings season will drive stock-specific activity, as companies release their results and outlooks. Investors are expected to closely evaluate earnings performance, forward guidance and sector trends to reassess valuations. Hariprasad K, Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said, "The continued escalation in West Asia, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, and the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations have introduced a significant event risk premium into global markets. This uncertainty is directly feeding into crude oil prices, with Brent hovering near $107 per barrel. "For India, this remains the single most critical macro variable, as elevated oil prices not only pressure inflation and the rupee but also weigh on corporate profitability across sectors."

The week also brings a heavy line-up of corporate earnings. UltraTech Cement, Coal India and Varun Beverages are scheduled to announce results on April 27, followed by Maruti Suzuki on April 28. Bajaj Finance and Adani Power will declare earnings on April 29, while Thursday will see multiple announcements including Hindustan Unilever, Adani Ports, Adani Enterprises and Bajaj Finserv. Among recent earnings, Reliance Industries Limited reported a 12.5% drop in its March-quarter net profit on Friday, with the global energy crisis affecting its oil-to-chemicals business, even as telecom and retail segments provided some support. Alongside corporate results, investors will track key domestic and global economic data. March 2026 Industrial Production (IIP) figures are due on April 28, while foreign exchange reserves data will be released on May 1. Globally, the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision on April 29, along with the US Q1 GDP advance estimate and ISM Manufacturing PMI, are expected to influence market direction.

"Domestically, March 2026 Industrial Production (IIP) data releases on April 28, while foreign exchange reserves come on May 1. Globally, the US Federal Reserve policy decision on April 29, along with US Q1 GDP advance estimate and ISM Manufacturing PMI will set the tone," Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said. He added that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to be the key swing factor for markets, particularly developments around the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran tensions, which are driving crude oil volatility and influencing inflation and margin concerns. Meanwhile, Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking Ltd, said, "Global developments continued to dominate market direction, with ongoing uncertainty around the West Asia crisis and concerns over supply disruptions keeping crude oil prices elevated." Markets had ended the previous week lower, reflecting the cautious mood. The BSE Sensex declined 1,829.33 points, or 2.33%, while the NSE Nifty fell 455.6 points, or 1.87%.