Prediction Market Kalshi Seeks $40 Billion Valuation Amid Legal Battles

Prediction market Kalshi is in talks to raise fresh funds at a valuation of about $40 billion, the Financial Times reported, in a round that could close as soon as the third quarter. That would nearly double the $22 billion valuation Kalshi reached just last month, when it raised $1 billion from backers including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, and Morgan Stanley.

The jump caps a vertiginous climb for Kalshi, which was worth around $5 billion in October 2025 and $11 billion by December.

A public listing may follow. CEO Tarek Mansour told CNBC on Wednesday that Kalshi is "basically thinking about" an IPO, though not this year. "A company of our financial profile with the rate of growth that we're seeing, that sort of conversation has to happen," he said. The Information has reported that a listing is unlikely before late 2027 or 2028.

Kalshi has grown explosively, claiming to have achieved an annualized trading volume of $178 billion by April 2026, up 32x year-on-year. But the platform is also caught in an escalating legal fight between state and federal authorities over who has the right to regulate prediction markets.

Last week, derivatives giant CME sued the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi's "perpetual" futures, contracts that let traders bet on crypto prices and compete head-on with CME's own products. Kalshi maintains that its event contracts are swaps under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction, a reading the Trump-appointed agency shares.

States see it differently, casting the sports markets as unlicensed gambling. Arizona filed criminal charges in March, a Massachusetts judge barred Kalshi's sports markets in January, and Nevada has extended a ban on prediction markets. This month, Kentucky sued Kalshi and rival platform Polymarket, accusing them of running illegal sportsbooks.

The CFTC fired back on Tuesday, suing Kentucky to block its enforcement, the ninth state it has taken to court and the first led by a Republican attorney general. Trump has called federal authority over the markets "critically important," and his son Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket.

The outcome is far from settled. A Michigan federal judge recently ruled that sports prediction markets are not swaps, and former CFTC and SEC chair Gary Gensler has filed a brief arguing the same. With multiple states in active litigation and conflicting rulings stacking up, the question of who regulates prediction markets looks bound for the Supreme Court.