Prediction Markets Surpass Onchain Gambling in Q1 2026 Volume

Prediction markets overtook onchain gambling for the first time in the opening quarter of 2026, recording $36.6 billion in volume compared with gambling's $14 billion, according to TRM Labs.

In a Wednesday report, the blockchain intelligence company said the shift followed a rapid expansion in both sectors. Onchain gambling reached $51 billion in 2025, while prediction markets climbed to $54 billion, putting the two categories at comparable scale heading into 2026.

Still, onchain gambling remained near record levels. Quarterly gambling volume reached an all-time high of $15 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, then held at $14 billion in Q1 2026.

Neither onchain gambling nor prediction markets retreated along with the broader crypto markets. Volumes remained elevated through the 2025-2026 market correction.

Annual onchain wagering volume. Source: TRM Labs

A TRM Labs spokesperson told Cointelegraph that gambling volumes have surged during the recent market pullback because of the “sticky and expanding activity of a loyal user base.”

“This does not mean anything about concentration risk in itself, since there is quite a large gambling user base,” the spokesperson said. “It shows how a consistent user activity can insulate an industry from a market pullback and in fact drive growth.”

Gambling and prediction markets face different risks

TRM said gambling platforms and prediction markets are increasingly converging on shared stablecoin infrastructure, but their financial crime risks remain distinct.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi operate as peer-to-peer markets for binary outcomes, while gambling platforms such as Stake, WINk and Rollbit operate more like traditional casinos, with the platform setting odds and maintaining a house edge.

Related: Chainalysis, South Korean police link up to fight crypto crime

TRM said prediction markets have attracted scrutiny over insider trading, while gambling platforms are more exposed to money laundering risks.

“Gambling services and prediction markets carry distinct inherent financial crime risks, and firms should calibrate controls accordingly,” a TRM Labs spokesperson told Cointelegraph.

Casual bettors drive growth alongside whales

TRM said more than 2 million personal wallets interacted with gambling platforms between January 2022 and March 2026.

The firm divided those users into five behavioral groups. “Dabblers” made five or fewer transactions and disappeared within a month, while “Casual Bettors” averaged 18 transactions across eight active days. “Event Chasers” returned around major sporting events, while “Daily Grinders” gambled on at least 30% of the days in their active tenure. “High Rollers,” the highest-value cohort, averaged $13,558 per bet and $378,000 in lifetime gambling volume.

The firm found that volume remains heavily concentrated among high-value users, with High Rollers representing 6.3% of personal gambling wallets but driving 91.8% of personal wallet gambling volume since 2022.

Despite this, TRM said the fastest-growing user categories are not only high-stakes bettors. Casual Bettors' monthly volume rose from $17 million in January 2022 to $188 million by March 2026, while Daily Grinders' volume increased 12x over the same period.