Religion, not climate, fuels Sahel conflict: study

Across the Sahel region, where many Fulani herders have historically lived, rising temperatures, drought, and desertification have reduced grazing land. Now, pastoralists are increasingly driving their stock beyond traditional ranges and coming into conflict with sedentary farming communities.

The WZB Berlin Social Science Center drew on over two decades of data across Nigeria to examine links between drought patterns, conflict incidents, and the religious composition of local communities.

Sociology professor Ruud Koopmans, who co-authored the study, said the data challenges the perception that climate change is the main driver of violence. Instead, he points to religious divisions as the decisive factor.

Religion influences violent conflict in Sahel

"Where these Muslim pastoralists meet farmers, who are in majority Christian, that is where we have the largest number of violent confrontations," says Koopmans, who is based at Berlin's Humboldt University.

He adds: "Where there is this religious divide, the conflict is further exacerbated by droughts."

Researchers used a survey in Kaduna State, north-western Nigeria, to establish that Christian respondents were more likely to attribute conflict over grazing lands to religious causes, and harbor greater distrust of Muslim Fulanis. Meanwhile, Muslim respondents were more likely to cite droughts and competition for resources as the cause for conflict.

The researchers say similar dynamics could apply beyond Nigeria, including in parts of the Sahel where climate stress and social divisions overlap.

They call for policies to address water and land management, but also early warning systems and community-based conflict mediation in religiously mixed regions. Such measures,they suggest, could help prevent environmental pressures from turning into violent conflict.

Religious tensions in northern Nigeria

According to Koopmans, religious tensions have intensified since the late 1990s. He cites the introduction of Sharia law in parts of northern Nigeria, resistance in mixed regions such as Nigeria's Middle Belt, and the rise of Boko Haram as factors that deepened mistrust between communities.

These developments, he argues, have also revived older historical fears, particularly among Christian communities.

Clashes are more likely in the Middle Belt,where Muslim herders and predominantly Christian farming communities interact. Conflict is less likely in northern regions where pastoralists and sedentary communities are mostly Muslim.

According to the WZB study, shared religious identity can help limit escalation by either appealing to religious authorities respected by both sides, making dispute resolution more likely and reducing the risk of violence.

According to the study, "When both nomads and farmers are Muslim, they are also more likely to respect common religious norms concerning property and the use of violence. There is a clear spiritual disbenefit associated with harming people who share the same faith."

Fulani militancy driving religious violence

The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) identified armed Fulani groups as among the most prominent non-state actors behind religious violence in Nigeria. It says an "estimated 30,000 Fulani militants" likely operate across Nigeria.

"While these militants do not share a centralized leadership, some collaborate on attacks," according to the USCIRF, which also says violence linked to Fulani militants caused more deaths among religious communities over the past year than attacks by insurgent groups or criminal gangs.

While many attacks have focused on Christian communities, particularly in the Middle Belt and increasingly in southern Nigeria, Muslim communities have also faced raids, killings and kidnappings.

The Washington-based US government commission adds that militants are described as carrying out coordinated attacks on rural communities, often at night, using motorcycles, firearms and machetes to force residents off their land.

The violence has contributed to mass displacement, with at least 1.3 million people in the Middle Belt forced into overcrowded and insecure camps. Kidnappings for ransom have also become a major tactic, with religious institutionsoften targeted.

Calls for stronger security coordination in Nigeria

Legal expert and founder of the Abuja-based House of Justice, Gloria Mabeiam Ballason, says the scale of the threat is difficult to independently verify due to a lack of verifiable information presented by Nigerian authorities.

Ballason says this risks undermining public confidence and warns that conflicting messaging can fuel uncertainty and fear.

"These threats are real. It would help for the government to have a clear program and strategy around ensuring that the next set of recruits into terrorism are stopped," she told DW.

Wilson Inalegwu, a retired Assistant Inspector General of Police, says immediate efforts must combine force with better planning and coordination. He warns that attacks often spread across regions because authorities fail to anticipate patterns.

"Those in Kwara were not prepared. They thought it was a Niger problem. You go to Kwara, those in Oyo thought it was a Kwara problem. Now it is in Oyo. So, we must have a kind of very robust patrols along these areas," he told DW.