The economic poisons of the US-Iran war will keep spreading

More than 3,300 Iranians, including 383 children, have been killed since the US and Israel launched their illegal war, authorities said this week. Asked about Wednesday's ceasefire deadline, Donald Trump said that he expected to resume bombing "because I think that's a better attitude to go in with", though his rhetoric can shift within minutes. Whatever happens – or doesn't – with the US-Iranian peace talks due to take place in Islamabad, the costs of this disastrous conflict will keep growing. The only thing that the sides have in common is that each needs peace, but thinks that it can force the other into significant concessions. Iran has deployed its drones and missiles to punishing effect, but knows that its chief weapon is the economic pain it can inflict, primarily through control of the strait of Hormuz. The International Monetary Fund warned last week that a further escalation could trigger a global recession. Its head, Kristalina Georgieva, had already said that the crisis would remain a threat to the global economy even if it ended overnight. The costs mount over time. But while the pain is widely spread, it is far from evenly shared. The combination of higher energy, food and fertiliser costs will increasingly hammer poorer and heavily import-reliant nations. The Iranian economy was already in a desperate state, thanks to years of sanctions and state failure. But the system has been built to withstand coercion and so far, the regime has survived the military and strategic pressure piled on it. It also knows the US bill is eye-watering. The White House last week declined senators' requests to provide a figure, but the Pentagon has reportedly briefed that military costs topped $11.3bn in the first six days alone. That's widely regarded as an underestimate. Prof Linda Bilmes, a Harvard public finance expert, suggests that the war is ultimately likely to cost the US $1tn when factors such as interest payments and long-term veteran-related expenses are included. Those direct costs are only the start. Ricocheting oil prices have enriched those wealthy enough to speculate on their movement with remarkably perfect timing. But the American Enterprise Institute estimates that the total cost to the average US household, including, for example, higher oil prices, is equivalent to $410. The Century Foundation suggests that these "economic poisons" are all the harder for US voters to swallow when the conflict is morally and strategically unwarranted. UK households will be an estimated £480 a year poorer. The UN development programme warned that Arab countries faced an economic contraction of between $120bn and $194bn after just one month of war. Even China, initially relatively sanguine, appears to be growing more concerned about the impact. But rising food prices hit the poorest – who spend more of their income on sustenance – the hardest. The World Food Programme warned last month that 45 million more people, primarily in Asia and Africa, could fall into acute food insecurity.