The Risk of Cascading Mini-Crises in the Global Economy
Experts debate whether the global financial system can withstand the cumulative impact of Middle East conflict and shifting US trade policies
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Analysts are debating whether the global economy faces a series of manageable mini-crises or a potential systemic collapse driven by Middle East conflict and aggressive US economic policies.
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Not a sudden, major crash but a series of mini-crises. That, according to some, is the prospect facing the global economy and financial system in the wake of conflict in the Middle East. But what if these mini-crises cascade into a collective collapse?
Or what if beyond its aggressive actions in the Middle East, the United States under President Donald Trump is also forcing Europe and Asia to shoulder the financial burden of their self-defence, thus allowing the US to emerge as the only real winner economically in a war that it, together with Israel, began?
Experts from various disciplines – economic, financial and geopolitical – seem unable to put it all together or to acknowledge the risk of a generalised crisis. Instead, they seem to have fixated on the idea of systemic resilience.
“The world economy has shown itself capable of shaking off significant shocks like broad US tariffs, so there is room for optimism that it will prove resilient to the fallout of the war on Iran,” Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University, has been reported as saying, for instance.
Such views or sketches do not capture the full picture, however. They describe single economic and financial blows that cause a victim to stumble in his stride but not collectively to provoke a fall – something which could be in prospect now.
