Trump's 'Reciprocal' Tariffs Set to Resume, Few Trade Deals Expected

Less than 10 days till President Donald Trump’s higher “reciprocal” tariffs kick back in for most of the world, the U.S. looks like it may emerge with just a handful of trade deals.

The President shocked the world and roiled markets on April 2, which he dubbed “Liberation Day,” when he imposed tariffs of as high as 50% on nearly every country, before announcing a 90-day reduction in a stunning reversal just a week later. That pause, however, is ending July 9, and Trump said in a Sunday interview on Fox News, taped Friday, that he doesn’t intend to extend the deadline—although, he added, “I could, no big deal.”

On Friday, Trump said he could do “whatever we want” with the deadline. “I’d like to make it shorter. I’d like to just send letters out to everybody, ‘Congratulations, you’re paying 25%,’” he told reporters.

Trump’s unpredictable style has earned him the descriptor “TACO” for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” while businesses, economists, and investors have criticized him for creating a volatile business environment. The President and his officials have countered that the uncertainty is all part of a master strategy to achieve better deals.

But the level of trade success Trump will have achieved by next week looks to fall short of his goals. Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro touted “90 deals in 90 days” in April. As the deadline approaches though, others in the Administration are lowering expectations.

“We’re going to do top 10 deals, put them in the right category, and then these other countries will fit behind,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Bloomberg Television last week.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed Lutnick on Fox Business on Friday: “If we can ink 10 or 12 of the important 18—there are another important 20 relationships—then I think we could have trade wrapped up by Labor Day [Sept. 1].” For other “smaller trading partners, we will just send them letters,” Bessent said on CNBC.

Japan was one of the first countries to begin trade negotiations with the U.S. after the pause was announced, but talks have been troubled by disagreements over Japan’s policies protecting domestic rice.

“To show people how spoiled Countries have become with respect to the United States of America, and I have great respect for Japan, they won’t take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday. (Japan imports 770,000 metric tons of rice every year without any tariffs, around half of which comes from the U.S.) “In other words, we’ll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come.”

The “letters” that Trump likes to reference will notify countries of what rate their goods will be tariffed at, which Trump said on Fox News would mark “the end of the trade deal.”

With some trading partners, Trump’s strong-arm style has won him immediate concessions. Trump railed against Canada on Friday, announcing that he was ending trade talks over its proposed digital services tax, which he called “a direct and blatant attack on our Country.” On Sunday, Ottawa said it was abandoning the tax policy to resume negotiations with Washington in the hopes that it can reach a deal with the U.S. by July 21. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Canada “caved.”

Similarly, the European Union on Monday reportedly yielded to a 10% levy on many of its exports, as it pushes for lower rates on specific key sectors and exemptions to higher tariffs on automobiles as well as steel and aluminum.

But Trump’s hardball tactics could also sour important U.S. trade relationships, and in the long term push countries to seek alternative trading partners. The E.U., alongside its negotiations with the U.S., is preparing countermeasures to tariff U.S. goods and has stepped up discussions with China around their trade relationship in recent months.

Jayant Menon, a research fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, previously told TIME that countries will look to diversify their trade and engage with “more reliable” trading partners. And many have already begun, said Kristina Fong, an economic affairs researcher at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, especially in terms of increasing trade with China. “It’s a very slow burn kind of momentum, but that’s always been, I think, the underlying case,” Fong told TIME.

Moreover, “smaller trading partners” that haven’t even gotten a seat at the negotiating table are likely to be hit hardest. Trump’s apparent dismissal of these countries, similar to his decision to shutter USAID, suggests that he doesn’t see the benefits of having positive relations with them.

Many of them were already hit with some of the highest “reciprocal” tariffs when they were initially announced, and many aren’t in a position to simply purchase more American goods. Lesotho, which was hit with the highest 50% rate, was pessimistic at the outset of the pause, with the country’s trade and industry minister saying, “I don’t have a good experience with trying to get meetings with [the Trump Administration].”

“We’ll look at how a country treats us—are they good, are they not so good? Some countries we don’t care, we’ll just send a high number out,” Trump said on Fox News. “Congratulations, we’re allowing you to shop in the United States of America. You’re going to pay a 25% tariff or 35% or 50% or 10%.”

“What does this do long term to trust and confidence [in the U.S.]?” says Mark Cogan, associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Japan’s Kansai Gaidai University, tells TIME. “You’re bullying your way to get what you want, and that reduces trust. To a certain extent, parties will assume eventually that they cannot negotiate with the United States because perhaps the United States is not negotiating in good faith.”

China has attempted to position itself as a reliable and stable partner, in contrast with Trump’s erratic style, and to strengthen its relations with other countries. Trump’s tariffs “were accelerating a trend of Chinese businesses looking more and more overseas,” William Figueroa, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Groningen, previously told TIME.

China, which signed an agreement with the U.S. in May that temporarily lowered both nations’ levies on each other after an escalating tariff war, has warned that countries should not reach deals with the U.S. at the expense of China’s interests.

“China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal for so-called tariff reductions at the expense of China’s interests. If that happens, China would never accept it and would take resolute countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,” China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Saturday.

“China is happy to see all parties resolve trade disputes with the US through equal consultations,” the statement added. “At the same time, we call on them to stand on the side of fairness and justice and firmly defend international and multilateral trade rules.”

“Trump is an emotionally driven leader with a history of flip-flopping. Beijing knows too well it must prepare for him reneging on commitments or using deals with other countries to extract concessions [from China],” Xu told SCMP.