U.N. Warns Powerful El Niño Could Push 49 Million More Into Acute Hunger

A powerful El Niño weather pattern could push nearly 49 million more people into acute hunger by the end of next year, the U.N. World Food Programme warned Wednesday, raising fears of worsening food shortages across some of the world's most vulnerable regions.

The agency said there is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño developing, with Pacific Ocean temperatures on track to reach their highest levels since at least 1982. If forecasts hold, it could become the strongest El Niño since 1950, triggering widespread droughts, floods and erratic rainfall that threaten food production.

Based on an assessment of 45 countries most vulnerable to El Niño, the WFP estimates the number of people facing acute food insecurity could climb by almost 49 million, bringing the total to about 274 million. Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be among the hardest-hit regions, with food insecurity projected to increase by 83% and nearly 75%, respectively. Southern Africa, South America and the Caribbean could each see more than 12 million additional people fall into acute hunger.

"These are events that in the past have triggered large-scale hunger," Jean-Martin Bauer, director of the WFP's Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service, told reporters.

Bauer said global food supplies are entering the El Niño period in relatively good shape after strong harvests in recent years, but warned that conflict in the Middle East and weather-related crop losses could still drive up food prices and make it harder for vulnerable families to afford basic staples.

The WFP also warned that funding cuts from the United States and Europe are making it harder to track emerging hunger crises. Bauer described a growing shortage of food security data, saying the agency conducted about 1.1 million household surveys in 2024 but only around 800,000 this year because of reduced funding.

"At a time when you have a risk like an El Niño, it is important to have high-frequency data collection," Bauer said, warning that weaker monitoring could delay the response to worsening food emergencies.

Current forecasts point to below-average rainfall across parts of East Africa, the Sahel, Central America and the Caribbean, while flooding risks are expected to rise in Somalia and neighboring countries. Parts of South and Southeast Asia could also face drought, disrupted monsoons and localized flooding that threaten crop production.

The WFP said it has already expanded anticipatory aid programs in 18 countries, reaching more than 1.3 million people this year with cash assistance and other support designed to lessen the impact of extreme weather before disaster strikes.