UK Defense Plan Faces Delay as Starmer Nears Exit, Burnham Looms

Pressure is mounting for outgoing British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's long-awaited blueprint for defense funding to be delayed yet again to allow his likely successor Andy Burnham to take control of the process.

Starmer is currently pushing to publish the repeatedly-delayed Defence Investment Plan (DIP) before the July 7-8 NATO leaders' summit in Ankara, his final appearance on the world stage before stepping down.

Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, is expected to take over from Starmer the following week. Downing Street has confirmed he will start receiving government briefings from the civil service on a range of issues "as soon as possible" to prepare him to take the reins.

A member of Burnham's team, granted anonymity like others in this article to discuss internal conversations, said Burnham would seek to take the DIP forward as prime minister on his own terms, rather than being bound by his predecessor.

This would likely mean the plan — intended to set out how the U.K.'s key defense capabilities will be funded over the next decade — would be pushed back to September, after parliament's summer recess and a year since it was originally due to be unveiled.

Some senior figures who played a role in Starmer's government have also concluded that it would be preferable for the next Labour leader to take ownership of the DIP.

An ally of former Defence Secretary John Healey, who quit after being denied more money for the armed forces, said: "We know this settlement falls well short, and an incoming PM will still have to meet the same requirements," meaning there is "a strong argument against publishing a half-baked DIP now."

A U.K. government official underlined that it would make sense for Starmer to dodge the issue.

“If I were him I would not try to force it through," they said. "Why not leave one of your impossible problems? There’s too much of a fudge for it to be a positive legacy item."

However, the official added they thought Starmer would still try to get the plan through before the NATO summit, since it would be difficult for him to reassure allies on the U.K.'s spending commitments without it.

Others questioned whether an outgoing prime minister would be able to secure agreement on such a politically sensitive plan.

Simon Case, a former Cabinet secretary, told The Times: “Why would the MoD want to agree something with an outgoing prime minister? Anything that an outgoing prime minister announces is unlikely to be taken seriously by anybody."

Defense industry representatives will be invited to Downing Street on Wednesday to meet officials from No. 10 and the Ministry of Defence as the government tries to persuade the sector it is still determined to provide certainty for manufacturers via the long-awaited plan.

Defense firms are torn on the issue of timing, said one lobbyist, as they are "desperate" for certainty but attracted by the idea that a new administration might find a way of increasing spending.

A spokesperson for Burnham declined to comment. A spokesperson for Starmer pointed to remarks from Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy, who told MPs on Monday: "I can confirm that the Defence Investment Plan will be published before the NATO summit."