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India's Stock Markets Caught in West Asia News Cycle; Kotak's Prasad Warns of 'Bad' and 'Ugly' Scenarios
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Business·24.04.2026AI özeti

India's Stock Markets Caught in West Asia News Cycle; Kotak's Prasad Warns of 'Bad' and 'Ugly' Scenarios

India's equity markets are reacting to daily West Asia news with no clear direction, and the macroeconomic consequences of the ongoing conflict are being underestimated, according to Sanjeev Prasad of Kotak Institutional Equities. Prasad outlines two scenarios: a 'bad' scenario with oil at $85/barrel leading to 2% CAD and 4.5-5% inflation, and an 'ugly' scenario with $100/barrel crude pushing CAD to 2.5%, fiscal deficit above 4.5%, and inflation to 5.5%+. Despite this, Nifty 50 earnings may show resilience as 50% of profits come from insulated sectors like oil and gas (20%), IT (12-13%), telecom (4%), and regulated utilities (4%). Kotak maintains 18% FY27 earnings growth assumption if conflict resolves by late April or mid-May.

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Economic Times