A truce in Iran has raised hopes for resuming business, but traders and investors are hesitant. The immediate focus is clearing backlogs of orders disrupted by previous blockades, not new long-term deals.
Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Bank of Russia, stated that the national economy faces no risks of overcooling. She cited increasing business and consumer activity in May and the absence of traditional cooldown markers like low inflation, rising unemployment, and falling real incomes.
UK services sector activity hits lowest since Jan 2021, driven by political uncertainty and the Iran war. S&P Global PMI shows contraction, with economists predicting GDP collapse. Job cuts rise as costs soar.
US immigration agencies have uncovered widespread fraud within the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, involving thousands of foreign students and suspect employers. Investigations revealed fake offices, empty buildings, and companies claiming to employ hundreds with little to no actual business activity, suggesting a "guestworker pipeline" issue.
UK consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since October 2023 in April, with multiple surveys blaming the US-Israeli war on Iran for surging cost pressures. The GfK consumer confidence index dropped four points to -25, while the S&P Global PMI recorded the biggest jump in business costs since 1996. Over a quarter of firms expect to raise prices next month - the highest since January 2023 - with energy costs cited by more than a third as a key driver. Economists warn UK inflation is on track to rise sharply, potentially forcing the Bank of England to raise interest rates.
