Charles Schwab is reportedly planning to launch prediction markets for its customers, offering yes-or-no wagers on the S&P 500's performance. This move, in partnership with Cboe Global Market, expands into a growing sector already featuring platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, despite ongoing regulatory scrutiny.
Charles Schwab is reportedly collaborating with Cboe Global Markets to launch prediction markets focused on S&P 500 performance. The markets will allow users to wager on the index's performance, similar to existing prediction platforms, and are expected to roll out in the coming months.
Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, which would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from wagering on policy outcomes, government actions, or elections via prediction markets. Violators face penalties and potential DOJ civil enforcement.
Germany and Ivory Coast, both winners in their opening Group E matches, face off in a crucial FIFA World Cup 2026 fixture in Toronto. The match is pivotal for qualification to the knockout stages.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, once hailed as truth-seeking tools, face an identity crisis. While proponents see them as valuable for forecasting world events, a surge in sports betting and concerns over addiction, insider trading, and "gambling-like design" are souring public opinion and attracting regulatory scrutiny.
Mexico faces South Korea in a crucial Group A match, with pre-match data favoring Mexico due to historical wins. Both teams won their opening games. The article details team lineups, controversies surrounding South Korea's media relations, and tactical approaches from both coaches.
Wealthsimple is launching a prediction markets app, Wealthsimple Predict, in Canada this summer. The app, powered by Kalshi, will offer access to thousands of event-based contracts after receiving regulatory approval from CIRO.
Chris Sutton, AI, and 99.65% of BBC predictor game users were wrong about Spain beating Cape Verde. This article details predictions for the second set of World Cup group games, including Scotland vs. Morocco and England vs. Ghana, with insights from Sutton and AI.
Kentucky has sued prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging they operate illegal sports betting operations. The platforms contend their contracts fall under CFTC oversight, a stance previously supported by the Trump administration. This escalating state-federal legal battle is expected to reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are falling, leading to increased bearish sentiment on prediction markets. Odds favor dumps to $55,000 for BTC and $1,500 for ETH, with traders anticipating no rate cuts this year and potential hikes.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais dismissed the IEA's prediction of an oil supply glut, citing a lack of factual basis. He emphasized OPEC's focus on fundamentals rather than speculative forecasts, warning that such headlines increase market volatility.
A viral social media post revives an alleged Bitcoin price prediction from 2018, claiming to have accurately called several BTC price levels and forecasting $145,000 by October 2026. However, the prediction lacks verifiable proof, with no original source link, and inconsistencies in market cap claims and supply control suggest it may be an edited meme.
Rep. Bryan Steil is introducing a provision to ban congressional lawmakers and their families from betting on prediction markets related to policy, politics, and elections. The measure, part of a larger bill banning stock trading, includes a $2,000 fee or 10% of the transaction value for violations.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei maintains his prediction that AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs within five years. Despite industry peers softening similar forecasts and internal research showing less immediate impact, Amodei expresses consistent concern, framing it as a productivity 'hump' that eventually leaves workers redundant. His stance comes as Anthropic approaches a potential $1 trillion IPO, leading some to view his warnings as both a genuine concern and a strategic sales pitch.
A Michigan federal judge ruled that sports prediction market wagers are not swaps under the CFTC's jurisdiction, denying Polymarket's bid to block state regulators. The case is headed to the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals.
Kalshi partners with StarCompliance to launch a monitoring platform for financial firms to oversee employee activity on prediction markets, amid increasing regulatory scrutiny over insider trading.
Prediction markets are seeing increased institutional adoption for hedging risks like tariffs, with trading volume doubling. However, issues with liquidity depth and dispute resolution, particularly concerning token-weighted votes and contract wording, pose significant challenges for large-scale adoption.
Prediction markets are seeing increased institutional interest for corporate hedging, offering direct bets on events like tariffs or regulatory changes. However, challenges with liquidity depth and dispute resolution mechanisms, particularly concerning token-weighted voting, pose significant risks for large-scale adoption.
Gold prices are holding strong, supported by central bank purchases and an interim US-Iran peace agreement that shifted focus from geopolitics to economics. Easing tensions reduced inflation fears and Fed tightening expectations, leading to lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has declared an El Niño active, predicting hotter and drier conditions. Scientists warn climate change makes predicting the weather pattern's impacts harder, potentially intensifying extreme weather events like heatwaves and droughts.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has declared an El Niño, predicting hotter, drier conditions. Scientists warn climate change makes its impacts harder to forecast, potentially intensifying effects like heatwaves and droughts.
Portugal begins its FIFA World Cup 2026 campaign against the Democratic Republic of Congo in Houston, Texas. Cristiano Ronaldo aims to extend his record in his potential final tournament, while DR Congo seeks its first World Cup goal and point.
Sports prediction markets are experiencing a surge in activity, with Kalshi setting a new daily trading record of $1.2 billion. Numerous companies, including Novig and ProphetX, are seeking CFTC approval to enter the space, which is already dominated by Kalshi and includes players like Polymarket, Robinhood, and major sportsbooks.
A renowned World Cup prediction model, accurate for the last three tournaments, suggests Argentina will be eliminated in the 2026 quarter-finals by Portugal. The model predicts Lionel Messi will be decisive against Turkey in the Round of 16, but Portugal's squad depth is expected to overcome Argentina.
