New York state has sued prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging it runs an illegal gambling operation without a license, allows underage users, and avoids taxes. Kalshi argues it's a federally licensed exchange overseen by the CFTC, not states, and that the lawsuit is "political theater."
Former Congressman George Santos has agreed to a $35,000 settlement with the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over suspicious trades on the prediction marketplace Kalshi. He will forfeit over $17,000, pay a $17,500 fine, and face a three-year trading ban, while denying any wrongdoing.
New York has sued prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operates an illegal gambling business by offering event contracts. The lawsuit seeks to halt operations, recover illegal gains, and impose penalties, while Kalshi defends its federally licensed status amid an escalating jurisdictional dispute with the CFTC.
New York State is suing prediction market Kalshi for at least $36 billion, seeking its shutdown and alleging it operates as an unlicensed gambling business. The action follows a federal-state dispute over regulatory authority, with Kalshi facing similar legal challenges in other states.
Wisconsin Elections Commission warns voters that betting on elections they participate in may disqualify ballots, sparking backlash from prediction market company Kalshi, which calls the law 'voter suppression'. Experts raise concerns over election integrity.
Prediction markets doubt the longevity of the US-Iran ceasefire, with a Polymarket contract indicating 50-50 odds of a 14-day halt in US strikes, amid skepticism fueled by Trump's readiness for renewed action and Iran's denial of direct negotiations.
Robinhood is discussing a partnership with Crypto.com to offer yes-or-no event contracts in its prediction markets hub, expanding its 2025-launched platform initially facilitated by Kalshi and later by ForecastEx and Rotella.
Prediction market startup Kalshi significantly exceeded its projections during the 2026 Fifa World Cup, achieving US$27 billion in trading volume and three million users. This success propels Kalshi into wider event contracts, including new markets for clinical trials and FDA reviews, despite ongoing regulatory challenges.
Bitcoin recovered to $66,347, holding 200 EMA support, despite a bearish 'death cross' and institutional caution reflected in the Coinbase Premium Index. Mixed signals from technicals and macro factors like upcoming tech earnings and the pending Clarity Act create market uncertainty.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are experiencing significant institutional growth. Firms and AI agents use event contracts for price discovery and trader evaluation, with monthly volumes reaching billions, despite challenges in execution and potential for concentrated edge.
Institutional crypto trading platform Talos has integrated with Kalshi, enabling select clients to trade Kalshi's event contracts and crypto perpetuals using their existing Talos infrastructure. This move aims to lower operational hurdles for professional trading firms, coinciding with record trading volumes in prediction markets despite ongoing regulatory scrutiny and legal battles in the US.
Prediction market platform Kalshi launched its 'Midterms Hub,' allowing users to view traders' expectations for U.S. Senate and House races. The hub integrates market odds with polling averages, fundraising data, and news, aiming to provide unbiased political insights backed by real money.
US House lawmakers discussed CFTC oversight of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, noting the agency's short-staffing. The proposed CLARITY Act could grant the CFTC more authority over digital assets and prediction markets, amidst a federal-state conflict over regulation, potentially reaching the Supreme Court.
Kalshi, Polymarket, and the casino/gaming sectors are engaged in a lobbying arms race in Washington, spending millions to influence lawmakers amid increasing scrutiny of prediction markets from Congress and regulators over their classification as financial products or sports betting.
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi saw $5.57B in World Cup trading volume, pushing the sector into mainstream sports betting. While a few traders captured most profits, the surge highlights potential commercial applications but also intensifies US regulatory scrutiny over whether these platforms are derivatives or gambling.
France's gambling regulator, ANJ, has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, a crypto prediction-market platform, after its earlier transaction geofence was circumvented. The ANJ deems Polymarket an unauthorized gambling offering, citing addiction and integrity risks.
Bernstein analysts raised Robinhood's (HOOD) price target to $160, maintaining an Outperform rating, based on their view that tokenized equities and prediction markets, rather than traditional crypto, will drive its next growth phase. They project significant revenue growth from prediction markets and see tokenized real-world assets as a major long-term opportunity, with other financial institutions also expanding tokenization infrastructure.
Hyperliquid is rolling out permissionless prediction markets, allowing anyone to deploy a market by staking 500,000 HYPE tokens. This move aims to open-source the category, contrasting with curated platforms, as prediction markets see record growth, while other crypto news includes an Allbridge exploit and regulatory updates.
Hyperliquid plans a HIP-4 upgrade allowing external operators to create prediction markets, challenging Polymarket. Deployers must stake 500,000 HYPE ($31.7M), with validators retaining broad oversight. This aims to expand market creation beyond validators, mirroring the success of HIP-3's perpetual futures.
Hyperliquid plans to introduce permissionless prediction markets under HIP-4, requiring developers to stake 500,000 HYPE tokens ($30.4 million). This initiative aims to expand event-based markets, with a slashing mechanism for poorly defined or unsettled markets.
Prediction market Kalshi recorded $40 billion in World Cup wagers, sparking skepticism from sportsbooks and regulators who argue it operates as an unlicensed gambling app. Kalshi claims it's a federally regulated financial product, not subject to state gaming taxes or age restrictions, leading to over 20 federal lawsuits and a potential Supreme Court case.
Kalshi is expanding its prediction markets to include wagers on drug trial results, aiming to increase transparency in drug development. This pilot program, in partnership with AppliedXL, faces criticism regarding market manipulation and insider trading. Kalshi also paused plans for flight cancellation bets after FlightAware disavowed data use.
Lionel Messi has become the favorite to win this year's Ballon d'Or, surpassing Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane, following his strong performance and reaching the World Cup final. Spanish teenager Lamine Yamal is positioned as the second favorite and a potential challenger.
France's gambling regulator, ANJ, has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, an illegal gambling site. This follows a November 2024 geoblock on financial transactions, which users circumvented, leading to continued growth in France.
