Analysts Warn of Late-Stage Memory Cycle as Price Increases Moderate
Morgan Stanley and Bernstein Research signal a shift in the memory industry driven by slowing price jumps and rising Chinese capacity.
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Analysts warn that steep price increases in high-end memory are signaling a shift toward a late-stage industry cycle, with slowing price growth, rising inventories, and Chinese capacity expansion putting pressure on major chipmakers.
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Memory chip prices have surged recently driven by data-centre spending, generating record profits for major manufacturers.
While data-centre spending continues to fuel appetite for high-end memory, analysts are warning that the steep price increases – which drove record profits over past quarters – signal a shift towards a late-stage industry cycle.
The concern is showing up in recent institutional forecasts. In a report last week, Morgan Stanley warned that the memory cycle was set to enter its late stage in the fourth quarter, as price increases moderate and inventories build.
The pullback has been broad-based, with shares of major memory firms, including Micron, SK Hynix and SanDisk, retreating from highs in recent weeks as investors reassess the durability of the run-up.
That deceleration is already reflected in contract pricing: Bernstein Research noted in a report on Friday that conventional DRAM contract prices were expected to rise about 17 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous period, a sharp slowdown from the roughly 65 per cent jump quarter on quarter in the April-June period this year.
Adding to supply-side pressure are expansion plans by China’s top memory producers.
UBS expected ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) to nearly double its monthly DRAM capacity from around 240,000 wafer starts at the end of 2025 to 466,000 by late 2028, lifting its share of global DRAM bit supply from about 7 per cent to 10 per cent.
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CXMT will nearly double its monthly DRAM capacity by late 2028.
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أسئلة مفتوحة
- Will Chinese capacity expansion outpace global demand?
- How severely will fourth-quarter contract pricing drop?
