Armenia Elections: EU Integration vs. Russian Influence

In the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia, citizens of the South Caucasian country will not only elect a new National assembly but will also steer the future geopolitical direction of their state. On the table is either rapid EU-integration or a return to the Russian sphere of influence.

A pre-election survey commissioned by the Washington based NGO International Republican Institute (IRI) puts the current pro-European Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's "Civil Contract" party in the first place with 32% of respondents saying they would cast their votes in party's favour.

The opposition traditionally has more pro-Russian views and is represented by three major forces that currently lag far behind the ruling party, according to the poll results. Some 7% of voters said they would support the "Strong Armenia" bloc run by a Russian billionaire of Armenian origin Samvel Karapetyan. He is currently under house arrest in Yerevan on charges of inciting a violent power grab as he publicly supported the Armenian Apostolic Church amid a bitter conflict between the church leaders and Prime Minister Pashinyan.

The political grouping "Armenia Alliance”, led by former president Robert Kocharyan who is reportedly a friend of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, is expected to garner 4% of the votes. The "Prosperous Armenia" party founded by business mogul Gagik Tsarukyan can likely count on the support of 2% of the Armenian citizens. Tsarukyan’s party is officially partnered with Russia's ruling 'United Russia' party.

The remaining five political parties, including some new protest projects, are only polling around 1-2%.

Experts warn that these numbers should be treated carefully given the unprecedentedly low response rate with only 16% of respondents agreeing to participate in the poll. That is 19 percentage points lower than ahead of in the 2021 snap election. At the same time 92% of participants expressed their willingness to vote compared to 72% in 2021. Almost one in two respondents declined to name their favorite candidate or said they have not yet reached a final decision on how to vote.

However, other polls showed different results, even giving Pashinyan’s "Civil Contract" party roughly a third of the votes, suggesting it may have a narrower lead against the opposition than thought.

The new political vector: Brussels or Moscow?

The pivotal issue in the election campaign is international affairs. The ruling party has moved closer towards the European Union, gradually distancing itself from Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) — a military alliance overseen by the Kremlin.

In May 2025, Armenian parliament adopted a law to launch the process of joining the EU. During the ongoing election campaign, Nikol Pashinyan promised to secure a visa-free regime with Europe within the next two years.

In early May, Pashinyan hosted the European Political Community Summit in the Armenian capital Yerevan. At the press conference after the summit, he pointed out that his country “is no ally of Russia's” when it comes to its war against Ukraine.

This rhetoric prompted a harsh reaction in Moscow. At the end of May, President Vladimir Putin threatened to impose tariffs on Armenia and build new legal obstacles for its citizens willing to work in Russia. He, alongside with other members of The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), suggested that Armenia hold a referendum on whether it wants to join the EU or remain part of the EAEU.

As Russia remains the largest market for Armenian agricultural produce, Moscow has tried to use its trade relations with Yerevan as leverage. Prior to the elections, Russia's Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision applied multiple restrictions on Armenian imported products including vegetables, berries, wine, flowers and fish under an excuse of alleged violations of sanitary norms.

At the same time, Moscow has notified Yerevan that their agreement on preferential supplies of gas and petroleum products to Armenia can be suspended.

Putin also compared of the current political context in Armenia to the one in Ukraine in 2014, which he referred to as a "crisis". He warned that adopting European standards will lead to Moscow ending its economic cooperation with Yerevan.

Russia's bid to influence the elections

Moscow’s interference in the upcoming elections became subject of heated discussion in Armenia long before the vote.

Tensions in the campaign escalated sharply following the publication by the Russian independent investigative media outlet The Insider about an alleged Russian spy network in Armenia. According to the investigation, Russian billionaire and leader of "Strong Armenia" party Samvel Karapetyan mentioned the Information Center of Russia’s Federal Security Service as his employer in his application for a passport issued in 1999.

Armenian security forces regularly initiate criminal cases against the representatives of the pro-Russian opposition on espionage charges. The opposition describes these cases as well as the article by The Insider, as "political prosecution".

A new page in US-Armenian relations

Aside from its EU shift, Pashinyan's government is deepening its dialogue with Washington. Recently two countries signed a charter on a comprehensive strategic partnership and a memorandum on rare earths.

In August 2025, Armenia and Azerbaijan paved the way to an ambitious logistics project mediated by U.S. president Donald Trump and informally called Trump’s Route. It aims at connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhichevan through Southern Armenia. This agreement marked a significant step towards the end of the blockade imposed upon landlocked Armenia by neighbouring Azerbaijan and Turkey amid a long-standing dispute over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Pashinyan's party describes Armenia's future relations with Russia as 'transforming' rather than allied. The reason, according to the party, is diversification of foreign policy. This change does not remain unanswered by Moscow. The crisis in relations between the two states started escalating in the fall of 2022, when the CSTO and Russia effectively failed to provide a response to Yerevan's request for military assistance amid border clashes with Azerbaijan.

Main opposition forces, on the contrary, act as ideological opponents of the current ruling power. They push for restoration of a strategic alliance between Armenia and Russia, viewing it as a key security guarantor in the peace process with Azerbaijan.

Controversies around Nagorno-Karabakh

Nikol Pashinyan made the idea of “real Armenia" central for his election campaign, denying the revisionists’ calls to restore the country’s “historical borders." Those include the region of Nagorno-Karabakh previously controlled by pro-Armenian separatists. Azerbaijan regained control of this breakaway region following the 2023 war, which brought an end to a conflict that had lasted for more than three decades.

The opposition criticizes this approach, insisting that Yerevan should advocate for the right of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh who had to flee as a result of the war to return to their homes. The authorities accuse their opponents of pushing the country to the brink of war with Azerbaijan by their hostile rhetoric.

Despite the tensions, 71% of participants in the survey commissioned by IRI believe that the elections will be free and fair, while 61% of them said that the country is moving in the right direction. 17 % of the respondents consider border security to be the main challenge for their country.

Edited by: Jess Smee