Armenia's PM Pashinyan Poised for Landslide Victory Amid Russian Pressure

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is on track for a landslide victory in the country’s June 7 elections, according to a recent poll, which could cement the nation’s shift towards the West and deepen tensions with Russia.

The Breavis poll, conducted between May 5 and 11 among 1,551 respondents, forecasts that Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party will secure nearly 65% of the vote among decided voters, far outpacing the fragmented opposition, with no other party polling above 12%.

This projected win would grant Pashinyan a strong mandate to continue Armenia’s strategic realignment with Western nations, a move that has drawn intense pressure from Moscow. In recent weeks, Russia has imposed trade bans, threatened to suspend Armenia from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and drawn parallels between Armenia’s Western leanings and the crisis in Ukraine.

On Saturday, Russia recalled its ambassador to Armenia, Sergey Kopyrkin, citing Yerevan’s accelerated path towards EU integration. The move followed an EAEU summit where leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, warned Armenia that its pro-EU stance posed “serious risks” to the economic security of EAEU members, urging a national referendum on the issue.

Despite these pressures, Pashinyan has received high-profile backing, including a recent endorsement from former US President Donald Trump, who described him as a “great friend and leader” making Armenia “strong, wealthy, and very secure.”

The poll’s release coincides with reports of a Russian disinformation campaign targeting Armenia and allegations that Moscow plans to transport thousands of Armenian voters from Russia to influence the election outcome.

If the polls are confirmed, Armenia’s shift could have far-reaching implications, including the consolidation of the peace agreement with Azerbaijan, facilitated by the US last year, and a deeper rift with Russia, potentially destabilizing the South Caucasus region.