Economist Warns of Severe Winter Logistics and Infrastructure Crisis in Ukraine

MOSCOW, August 4. /TASS/. Even a moderately cold winter risks turning into a logistical nightmare for Ukraine, significantly straining its rear, economist Vasily Koltashov, director of the Institute of New Society, wrote in a column for TASS.

"Higher-than-average precipitation is forecast for the autumn and winter. Damaged roads, a shortage of filling stations, frequent railway breakdowns, and accidents at depots could turn even a moderately cold winter into a logistical nightmare," he said.

A mild winter with fluctuating temperatures will also damage water supply systems, the expert added. "Preliminary forecasts indicate that the coming winter will feature brief cold spells alternating with prolonged thaws, rain, and wet snow. Given the specific climatic conditions, even a relatively mild but damp winter characterized by constant temperature swings will inflict maximum damage on aging Soviet-era water supply and sanitation systems, which simply cannot withstand the repeated freezing and thawing of the soil," he said.

Koltashov identified energy generation and fuel infrastructure as Ukraine’s Achilles' heel, noting that over 200 gas stations were destroyed in the country between May and July. The expert predicts that by winter, gas stations in the country’s left-bank region could virtually disappear. "The situation with electricity is even worse. Almost all thermal power plant capacity has been lost, and nuclear power generation could be drastically reduced due to the disabling of substations," he said.

Moreover, new damage to the industrial and energy sectors will "inevitably cause a collapse in external supplies of Ukrainian steel, machinery, and equipment," Koltashov said, adding that Ukraine’s trade balance "will remain deeply in deficit, with import volumes vastly exceeding exports." He also expects public frustration to continue to mount this coming winter. "A clear realization will begin to take hold among both civilians and the military that the country simply cannot endure another winter without electricity, heat, and basic amenities," the expert concluded.