Fed Projections Show One Rate Hike in 2026, Warsh Abstains from Forecast

The Federal Reserve's latest projections pointed to one rate increase in 2026, though the outlook was complicated by the absence of a forecast from Chairman Kevin Warsh.

Nine of 18 officials projected that the federal funds rate would end 2026 above its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. However, the outlooks missed one participant, and Warsh confirmed in the news conference after the Fed meeting that he refrained from offering any forecast of his own.

The median projection now calls for the federal funds rate to end 2026 at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in the Fed's March summary and a quarter percentage point above the current target range. The central bank left interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of Wednesday's meeting, the first gathering under Warsh.

"I did not submit a dot for me. It's not helpful in the conduct of policy," Warsh said in the news conference.

Warsh, who just took over as Fed chairman, has signaled a desire to overhaul the central bank's communications strategy, contending that officials may provide too much forward guidance and place excessive emphasis on mapping out the future path of monetary policy.

The Fed's policy statement also underwent a far more extensive rewrite than is typical. In recent years, changes have often been limited to a handful of words or sentences, but Wednesday's statement was dramatically pared down.

The Fed chief said Wednesday that the central bank plans to review its communications practices by year-end, including news conferences, the dot plot, meeting schedules, transcripts and minutes, and said he was "open-minded" about potential changes.