G7 Summit: Low Expectations, High Stakes in Trump Era

“Part of every goal of G7 is to come out showing that these countries can work together,” the official said. “They may not always agree on everything, but at least everyone knows where everyone stands, and they can at least agree to work on issues together in a constructive manner.”

The gathering of seven of the world’s largest economies and democracies comes at a volatile global moment. In the run-up to the summit, Trump’s posture on Iran has swung sharply — from threatening to strike Iran “VERY HARD” on Thursday to announcing that a peace deal would be signed on Sunday, though Iran still had yet, as of Sunday morning, to confirm a deal has been reached.

The muted ambitions from the United States and European countries reflect how the world has come to operate in the Trump era, in which avoiding a blowup and papering over differences with a message of cohesion is viewed as a win.

French President and G7 host Emmanuel Macron’s office on Thursday declared “this G7 is already a success,” pointing to the fact that China, which is not a member, participated in a video call ahead of the summit to discuss economic imbalances.

But one British official, who, like some others in this report, was granted anonymity to speak freely, said expectations for the trip were “very low” and deadpanned that the U.K. delegation was just hoping the plane Wi-Fi worked.

A G7 diplomat, meanwhile, set the bar for success just at Trump’s attendance.

“If Trump comes, it will be a success,” the diplomat said. “He is attending [the summit] ... And the Americans are taking part in the talks, so things are looking good.”

Trump’s distaste for multilateral forums is well known, though allies note that he sees them as a useful mechanism for advancing bilateral relationships. And even as the U.S. might like to see more coordination to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, those allies say the U.S. still holds the upper hand going into the meeting, as other countries pursue their own needs from Washington — relief from tariffs, further engagement on Ukraine and reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains.

“If you go down the list, and you look at the economies and the geopolitical realities of the other G7 members, they need American support, and they need American leadership a lot more than we need a nice communique from them,” said Alex Gray, who served in a senior role at the National Security Council in Trump’s first term. “That’s just the reality of power in the international system, even today.”

As it did out of last year’s gathering in Canada, which Trump left early amid tensions between Iran and Israel, the G7 is expected to pass on issuing a sweeping, joint communique.

Instead, France, which currently holds the G7 presidency, will issue an overall declaration, accompanied by ad hoc declarations, according to Macron’s office. Topics under discussion for those declarations include critical minerals, research to fight cancer, protecting children online, international solidarity, social impact investment and reducing risk of investing in developing nations.

What happens in the aftermath of a potential Iran deal will likely be a key topic in Evian. The senior White House official earlier this week noted promises from countries like France and the United Kingdom to help protect shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz once it reopens — but said any other asks of G7 countries would come post a deal being reached.

A senior administration official said Saturday that there is “a lot that the G7 countries have said that they can do once that deal goes forward,” particularly when it comes to securing the strait.

“As the straits open, we’re going to be very involved in demining, and to the extent that G7 countries can participate in that, that’s also going to be a helpful thing to get things back to normal as quickly as possible,” the official said.

And while Trump has said a peace deal would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon “through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement,” questions remain over the future of the country’s nuclear program — ones that will need to be answered in the coming weeks.

Other priorities for the summit include investment partnerships, innovation in artificial intelligence, Ebola outbreak response, critical mineral supply chain resilience, illegal immigration and drug smuggling and energy exports, a second White House official said.

But for some Trump allies, the bar for a successful summit is so low that it’s the imagery, not the policy, they’re most anticipating.

“I’m not sure there’s a big policy get,” one former Trump official acknowledged.

But the person ran through several possible permutations for the photo-ops: Trump with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the pair with Macron, or Trump in a solo meeting with United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

“The president’s an image guy, so he’ll be thinking about this a lot,” the person added.

At the top of Europe’s list of priorities is Ukraine. Kyiv is gaining ground for the first time in years but is running short of Patriot interceptors and heads into the summer with a crippled power grid. Zelenskyy is expected to attend a dedicated G7 session Tuesday, but there is transatlantic skepticism he’ll leave with commitments on his most pressing ask.

“While Ukraine is in need of Patriots, unfortunately, given the global shortage, I would be skeptical about the opportunity for President Zelensky to secure a successful deal in that regard,” Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told reporters.

China also looms over the summit — even if at a distance. Macron on Thursday hosted a video call between G7 leaders and Beijing to discuss global trade imbalances, a notable step for a group that has taken an increasingly confrontational stance toward China in recent years. Conversations will continue at the G20 in December and the International Monetary Fund will support the effort, according to Macron’s office.

And the Ebola outbreak has created another unlikely fault line. Kenya, which France invited to sit at the G7 table Tuesday, is now the site of violent protests over the Trump administration’s decision to send infected Americans there for treatment rather than repatriating them home, a policy a Kenyan court blocked late last month.

The World Health Organization has said travel restrictions in the U.S. and more than a dozen other countries are hurting its ability to effectively respond to the outbreak.

The Trump administration has defended the approach as necessary to keep the virus from American soil, but European allies have been left to grapple with the consequences. A U.S. doctor was, for instance, sent for treatment in Germany after contracting Ebola while operating on a patient in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

“The U.S. has done a phenomenal job of ensuring that none of it spreads to the U.S., whereas WHO is hitting us on, ‘They’re not letting their own people back in.’ We’re trying to prevent spread into the U.S. Of course we’re not going to let infected people into the U.S.,” the senior White House official said. “There’s always that tension between WHO and what the U.S. does.”