German Army Chief Warns of Russian Attack by 2029 or Sooner

Germany must prepare for a Russian attack by 2029 or even earlier, the head of the German army told POLITICO.

"We have to be prepared ... We must be ready to fight," Lt. Gen. Christian Freuding, Germany’s army chief, said at the ILA aerospace show in Berlin.

He said that there is broad allied consensus that Russia could attack NATO territory before the end of the decade.

“2029 is not a German timeline. It’s NATO-agreed intelligence,” Freuding said. “All 32 NATO partners agree that Russia might have the capability to invade a NATO partner country in 2029.”

But he warned that Russia could move before then, despite the war in Ukraine entering its fourth year and Kyiv saying that Moscow has suffered over 1.3 million casualties as well as losing vast amounts of equipment.

Freuding's comments come as European defense officials warn that Russia could rebuild enough military strength in the next few years to pose a direct conventional threat to NATO territory, despite its losses in Ukraine. For defense planners, 2029 has become shorthand for the point at which Europe must close urgent gaps in readiness, production and military capability.

The general's remarks underscore the concern that Moscow could test the alliance while Europe is still racing to rearm.

That urgency is also shaping Germany’s debate over weapons procurement and defense industry capacity. Freuding said Berlin had already done “a lot” to accelerate procurement and that industry had ramped up its production capacity.

Still, he warned that Germany cannot depend only on longer-term weapons programs that may take years to develop and field.

“Speed is of the essence now,” Freuding said.

For some systems still under development, he added, Germany needs “intermediate solutions” to close the gap between what the army has now and what it needs for combat readiness.

“We must improve our capabilities for the ‘fight tonight’ every day as the German army,” he said, referring to the Bundeswehr's new shift toward referring to the Bundeswehr's shift toward a high-readiness force designed to deter potential Russian aggression.