Gold Price Prediction Today: Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Policy Weigh on Bullion

Gold continues to trade with a bearish bias after extending its sequence of lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. (AI image)

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are trading with a bearish bias as geopolitical events weigh on investor sentiment, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Gold prices continue to languish as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel inflation concerns and strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary policy. Fresh US strikes on Iranian targets following attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude oil prices higher, reviving fears of energy-driven inflation and adding uncertainty over global supply routes. Higher oil prices have supported the US dollar and Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting highlighted that policymakers remain divided on the need for further policy tightening but broadly acknowledged persistent inflation risks arising from elevated energy prices, AI-driven investment demand and the impact of tariffs. As a result, markets continue to price in the possibility of another Fed rate hike before the end of the year if inflation remains sticky. Investor attention will now turn to this week’s key US economic releases, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), along with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony, for further clarity on the inflation outlook and the future path of interest rates. Stronger-than-expected inflation data could reinforce expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates and weigh further on bullion, while softer inflation readings or dovish policy signals may provide some relief to gold prices. Gold continues to trade with a bearish bias after extending its sequence of lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. Prices remain below the 20-day moving average, indicating that sellers continue to dominate in the near term. Although, metal is holding above lower Bollinger Band, the inability to sustain above the 20-day average suggests that recovery attempts are likely to attract fresh selling. The broader trend remains corrective unless prices reclaim key resistance levels. From Bollinger Bands perspective, the 20-day moving average (middle band) is placed at Rs 145,806, while the upper band stands at Rs 152,446 and the lower band at Rs 139,166. Gold is currently trading below the middle band and gradually approaching the lower band, reflecting weakening momentum. A sustained close above Rs 145,800 would indicate improving sentiment and could pave the way towards the upper Bollinger Band, while a break below Rs 139,200 may accelerate downside momentum. Fibonacci retracement drawn from the recent major swing low near Rs 118,000 to the record high around Rs 179,000 places the 23.6% retracement near Rs 164,600, 38.2% around Rs 155,700, 50% near Rs 148,500, and 61.8% close to Rs 141,300. Gold is currently trading around the 61.8% retracement, a level often regarded as the final line of support before a deeper correction. Holding above this zone could encourage bargain buying, whereas a decisive break below it may expose prices towards Rs 138,500–137,000. Technically, gold appears to be trading within a descending channel, highlighting a persistent short-term downtrend. Immediate support is seen at Rs 141,300, followed by Rs 139,200 (lower Bollinger Band) and Rs 137,000. On the upside, Rs 145,800 remains the first resistance, followed by Rs 148,500 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and Rs 152,450 (upper Bollinger Band). Overall, the outlook remains bearish to neutral, with the Rs 141,300 support zone likely to determine whether gold stages a recovery or extends its corrective decline during the week.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)