Greater Manchester Mayor Election: Labour's Challenge and Opposition Opportunities

As Andy Burnham maps out the final steps on his path to Downing Street, he may feel that his future is clear. But a look back over his shoulder reveals a cloudier outlook, inviting the question: what now happens to his former role as Greater Manchester’s mayor?

An election has been set for 30 July, and with the job widely seen as having grown under Burnham’s tenure to become one of the most influential in British politics outside Westminster, Labour is desperate to cling on to it – but parties to its right and left both see an opportunity.

Labour is yet to select a candidate, though the frontrunner is widely believed to be Bev Craig, the leader of Manchester city council who has been viewed as Burnham’s likely successor for a number of years. Paul Dennett, the mayor of Salford who became interim mayor of Greater Manchester following Burnham’s election as an MP, is not expected to stand.

Craig, who has led the council since 2021, is thought to be favoured by many in the party as a consistent presence who can benefit from Burnham’s popularity and endorsement. These, they hope, will bring some of the 420,000 people who voted for him in the last mayoral election back to the ballot box in July.

The view that the right Labour candidate can continue in Burnham’s footsteps is not shared by those outside the party, however.

A source close to the Greens said that “like Gorton and Denton”, where the party won its first north of England MP in February, the leadership was “throwing everything at this because we really think we can win it”. They claimed that, without Burnham, Labour would struggle to appease voters with candidates such as Craig, who is “a symbol of the things people don’t like about the Labour party, that sense of a very ‘politiciany’ politician”.

The source added: “What we know is that the brand of Andy Burnham massively outstrips the brand of the Labour party at the moment. So when you just put another Labour party politician in on that Labour ballot, there’s no real reason to think that they’re going to get that Andy Burnham bounce.”

The Greens have already begun their campaign for the mayoralty, with more than 50,000 leaflets printed to promote its candidate, Geraldine Coggins, a Trafford councillor, who was confirmed as standing on Saturday.

Coggins, 50, worked alongside the Gorton and Denton MP, Hannah Spencer, on the council and succeeded her as the party’s group leader after her byelection victory. She is viewed by the party as “someone who clearly represents something different to the politics of normal, while at the same time being very credible”, the source said.

The election will be run under the supplementary vote (SV) system, whereby voters pick a first and second choice, with second choices counted for the top two candidates if no one wins more than 50% initially.

It is a return to a system that was used for mayoral elections until 2022, when it was replaced by first past the post under the Conservatives, and the switch back has been hastened by the knowledge that a contest was likely in Manchester.

Green officials believe SV might have some benefits, as people could opt for them first and Labour as a back-up. But if large numbers of voters put Labour first and the Greens second, there is a risk the party may not make the top two, leaving a battle between Labour and Reform UK.

Reform also views the election as one it has a strong chance of winning, with the party looking to move past the disappointment of its performance in Makerfield, where it achieved 15,696 votes – well shy of the 18,000 minimum that the party’s leader, Nigel Farage, had predicted, and more than 9,000 votes behind Burnham and Labour.

The pressure on Reform to win the mayoralty is high, coming off the back of three consecutive byelection losses. The party came second in Caerphilly in October, Gorton and Denton in February and Makerfield last week, but none proved a close contest, with at least 10% of the vote separating first and second place each time.

Reform is also understood to be wary of the threat posed by Restore Britain, the far-right party created by Rupert Lowe in 2025 after he left Reform in disputed circumstances after a falling out with Farage.

Lowe’s party, which will celebrate its one-year anniversary next week, has been reported in the Manchester Mill as selecting Marlon West as its candidate. The 52-year-old is a prominent campaigner against child sexual exploitation whose daughter was a victim of a grooming gang in Greater Manchester.