Pauline Hanson's Enduring Influence on Australian Politics

Pauline Hanson might as well have been a delegate at Labor’s national conference in Adelaide this week.

Invoked directly, alluded to, dismissed and feared, the One Nation leader was everywhere – proof she is on the minds of more than just the opposition 18 months out from the next election.

As the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, fired up Labor’s political engine to fight for a third term, any idea that Hanson and her insurgent populist project isn’t upending Australia’s political reality should be done away with.

For now at least, Albanese and the opposition leader, Angus Taylor, face a clear and present danger, and one that will not be subject to the usual rules of political and media pressure.

Hanson has had quite the week.

Back from her tour to meet conservative and far-right figures in Britain – including a stop in Sicily with her billionaire patron Gina Rinehart – she struck out with Channel 7 over their Spotlight profile on Sunday night.

The Queensland senator then stoked outrage by describing domestic violence as a “two-way street”, language family violence experts said was potentially dangerous to women. Hanson, who herself has experienced violence in the past, said that women could “lose their cool”. Women at risk of violence should simply leave, she said.

On Friday it emerged Hanson had used an appearance on a podcast called Broken Fathers to describe paid leave for domestic violence victims as “ridiculous”, and suggested the issue was distracting police from “real crime”. She called for the family law system to be wound back.

Like clockwork, Hanson’s backers claimed she had been taken out of context. Hanson herself posted the full comments to Brisbane radio station 4BC on social media, attempting to show the backlash was unjustified. But the post actually revealed the comments were reported completely in context: Hanson had risked justifying violence against women and blaming victims for the appalling conduct of their abusers.

After decades on the political scene, she has no credibility on rule of law and no credibility on the actions of pathetic men. Her fawning podcast appearance with convicted criminal Tommy Robinson would be disqualifying for any normal political leader, even before the pair engaged in racist stereotypes and lamented the end of the White Australia policy.

Certainly the country deserves better than a leader prepared to associate with Robinson.

A cameo appearance by Barnaby Joyce’s dog on ABC TV should not distract from the fact Hanson needs to explain who paid for her multi-week European tour and just what that person might expect in return.

One Nation regularly justifies its shadowy use of private benefits, insisting that taxpayers have not contributed to the cost of travel. This wholly misses the point that privately funded perks are corrosive to politics and transparency is required.

But, like the growing allegations of financial impropriety against Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and the historic corruption going on inside Donald Trump’s White House, these scandals don’t seem to dent Hanson’s support. Voters who object to the supposed battler politician sticking it to the establishment – even while going to fashion shows and staying in fancy resorts with Rinehart – see criticism of Hanson as just the latest attempt to tear her down.

Expectations that One Nation’s polling surge was starting to recede were dampened on Monday when the Newspoll showed the party recovering to a primary vote of 30%, on par with Labor and ahead of the Coalition on 19%. Pollster Kos Samaras pointed out that roughly four in five current One Nation supporters were somewhere else 18 months ago, even though he categorises this cohort as “renting their vote to Hanson”, not giving it to her permanently.

The going might stay good for Hanson for a while yet. New data crunched by Michael Read at the Australian Financial Review shows Australia is heading for its weakest decade of living standards growth since 1910, with GDP per person increasing by just 4% so far this decade. To blame is persistently sluggish productivity, the lingering effect of the pandemic disruption, high inflation and the energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Hanson might also benefit from a splintering of public debate. The big media outlets long ago lost their status as gatekeepers, but the shift of figures like Karl Stefanovic and Kyle Sandilands from the mainstream to the fringes will help give One Nation’s fringe views a platform with the average voter.

On policy solutions, Labor runs the risk of coming up short with voters hit hard by tough economic times and looking for someone to blame.

Economic uncertainty often drives grievance politics and boosts support for populist parties, especially when they blame immigrants or other minorities for the plight of the broader population.

The South Australian Labor premier, Peter Malinauskas, used a speech at the conference in Adelaide to warn against just this. Political parties banging on about personal responsibility usually find someone else to blame, he said, warning against complacency even as the non-Labor vote splits ahead of the election.

Albanese and the new Labor national president, Kate Ellis, say the party’s best defence against One Nation’s rise is policies that actually improve people’s lives, pointing to meaningful cost-of-living assistance, including on energy and childcare fees. Speakers at the conference talked up help for families, students and low-income earners, and measures to help strengthen communities, as possible shock absorbers for frustration and fears growing around the country.

Albanese told delegates the party would demonstrate to voters that hard work will indeed pay off. Maybe he has a plan to take on Hanson, like he always claimed he did for Peter Dutton, mostly after the fact.

But if he does have a winning strategy, he should tell his peers overseas what it is. Because, so far, no one else has found a way to substantially slow the rise of the far right.

Albanese is fond of saying that people underestimate him. He should be careful he doesn’t do the same with Hanson.