Reliance Industries Q4FY26 Earnings: Mixed Performance Expected as Brokerages Diverge on Profit Outlook

Reliance Industries is likely to report a mixed Q4FY26 performance, with steady revenue growth but pressure on profitability due to weakness in the O2C and upstream segments. Telecom and retail are expected to lend support, though margins may remain volatile, according to estimates from four brokerages.

Net profit is projected in the range of Rs 16,200 crore to Rs 23,053 crore. While YES Securities is the most optimistic, forecasting a 2% year-on-year rise, others—including ICICI Securities, Nuvama Institutional Equities, and Emkay Research—expect a decline of 4.7% to 17%.

O2C-to-telecom conglomerate is expected to report a topline growth of 8%-13%, three estimates said while, Nuvama is pegging a 1.7% YoY decline. The topline range is Rs 2,57,037 crore to Rs 2,96,161 crore in the January-March period of FY26.

The O2C and upstream segments are likely to drag overall performance while Telecom (Jio) is expected to support earnings via ARPU and subscriber growth. The retail recovery is likely to remain gradual while margins to stay volatile amid global energy price dynamics.

RIL will announce its earnings on Friday, April 24.

Here's what brokerages recommend:

1) PAT – YES Securities estimates PAT at Rs 23,053 crore, up 2% YoY and 3.4% QoQ. – ICICI Securities pegs PAT at Rs 16,200 crore, down 17% YoY and 13% QoQ. – Nuvama expects PAT at Rs 17,697 crore, down 8.8% YoY and 5.1% QoQ. – Emkay Research estimates PAT at Rs 18,504 crore, down 4.7% YoY and 0.8% QoQ.

2) Revenue – YES Securities sees sales at Rs 2,81,296 crore, up 7.6% YoY and 6.2% QoQ. – ICICI Securities estimates revenue at Rs 2,84,300 crore, up 9% YoY and 7% QoQ. – Nuvama pegs revenue at Rs 2,57,037 crore, down 1.7% YoY and 3% QoQ. – Emkay Research expects net sales at Rs 2,96,161 crore, up 13.3% YoY and 11.8% QoQ.

3) EBITDA – YES Securities estimates EBITDA at Rs 46,427 crore, up 5.9% YoY and 0.9% QoQ. – ICICI Securities pegs EBITDA at Rs 44,050 crore, up 1% YoY and down 4% QoQ. – Nuvama expects EBITDA at Rs 44,485 crore, up 1.5% YoY and down 3.3% QoQ. – Emkay Research sees EBITDA at Rs 45,979 crore, up 4.9% YoY and down 0.1% QoQ.

The Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) is expected to remain largely stable YoY, with telecom strength offsetting O2C and upstream weakness.

4) EBITDA margin – YES Securities estimates EBITDA margin at 7.29%. – Emkay Research pegs EBITDA margin at 15.5%, down 124 bps YoY and 185 bps QoQ. Margins are likely to remain under pressure, impacted by higher crude costs and weaker petrochemical spreads.